欧洲物流：Bernstein 集装箱概要 Q3 '25

Even tariffs could not dissuade container shipping lines from ordering new vessels. Onceagain,deliveriesweremorethanreplacedbyneworders,threateningfurthersupplyexpansion that we now expect to be +6% in each of 2027and 2028. The imposition oftariffsneverthelessseestheoversupplyproblemtakeonanincreasedlevelofurgency.The fleet added 2% in the Q2 - and even still, outstanding orders are +6% vs March 31.DemandhasbeenOKforQ2withlikelysomepull-forwardofshipmentsduringthetariffpause,butweseeriskstovolumesintoH2withamutedpeakseason,andfurtherriskfortrade barriers destroying demand and worsening the supply-demand balance. Red Searestoration ornot, onthe currenttrajectory,risks looktothe downside.Access our downloadable container shipping supply model hereDemand looks insipid. Container volumes are +5% YTD (data through the end of April)However,thiswasflatteredbywhatlookstous likeapull-forwardofdemand inQ2following a pause in US tariffs. That provided temporary support to rates, which has sincereversedcourse,andspotratesarenowonfourstraightdownweeks.Wecurrentlyexpecta muted peak season as importers built inventories earlier.Risks intol2, with tariffs suggesting at least some demand destruction. Q2 kickedoff with “Liberation day"” and the imposition of huge tariffs on much of the world by theUs. This was followed by a pause, with new rates are set to take effect on August 1. WhileE lower than those announced in April, they are much higher than when the year began.CSindustry (forwarding) can flex the cost base, asset-heavy shipping is naked and exposed to adeteriorating supply-demand balance.To top it all off, orderbooks keep expanding! Liner profits are shaped by rates, and inturn by the supply-demand balance. Oversupply is a real threat. We currently see 47% fleetgrowth from 2019-26, with another 6% growth in 2027 and 2028. During the quarter,despitethe in-servicefleetexpanding by2%,orderbooksgrew6%,asneworderswereplaced for capacity equivalent to 3.6% of the entire in-service fleet. We had thought,wrongly, that the imposition of tariffs would lead to caution on the part of liners in orderingnewvesselsandthat Q1might representtheorderbook'szenith:perhaps atriumphofhopeover experience in a still-profitable market.Strong profits, ironclad balance sheets... and cash reserves ready for burning? Q1saw earnings take a step down from Q4, but still remained highly profitable at >$8.6bnEBiTDAforthe linersthat reportit.Withgooddemand and thereluctance of many liners(CMA excepted) to recommence transits through the Bab-El-Mandeb strait, earnings werewell-supported. Although freight rates have since sequentially declined, and Q2 earningsshould be below the levels of Q1, we nevertheless expect still-supported profits near term.Solid Q1 financial results allowed the industry to remain well-funded: aggregate net cash of$2Obn (i.e., net cash).Net debt/TTMEBITDA stoodat -3x at the end of March.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingMAERSKB.DCUDHL.GR0DSV.DCKNIN.SWMEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe rate DSV and DHL Outperform, Kuehne+Nagel Market-Perform, and Maersk Underperform,Dsv (Outperform, TP DKK 1,65o.oo) has a long history of continuously delivering both organic and inorganic total shareholderreturn. We are once again at the point of M&A integration with a 14.3bn deal for DB Schenker, the world's fourth-largestfreight forwarder, and creating a new world #1. We see the deal as pushing EPS above DKK 100 by 2028 as DSV expands DBSchenker's margins to its own level.DHL (Outperform, TP 43.oo) is really five logistics companies under a single corporate umbrella. At a high level, its earningsare levered to ecommerce and world trade: c. 70% of EBIT each. DHL Express is the group's largest division: a three-playeroligopoly, levered to an eventual recovery in B2B express air. The group also has businesses in (in order of EBIT contribution)freightforwarding (DGFF),postandparcels (P&P)in Germany,contractlogistics (DSC),and non-Germanparcels (eCommerce)There are material tailwinds into 2025 earnings: action on cost reduction, and positive catalysts in the P&P segment: reform ofthe postal law and an increase of letter prices for the next two years, with another increase expected in 2027. If shares fail towork, investors have the implicit put option of a break-up from 2026 on, to help close some of the SOTP discount at which thegroup trades. A high single digit FCF yield and mid single digit, well-covered, make the stock attractively valued.Kuehne+Nagel (Market-Perform, TP CHF 175.oQjs currently the world's largest freight forwarder by air volumes and seavolumes. The group was founded in the 19th century, and just over 50% is owned by the founder's grandson and associatedfoundations. Management reset targets at a/cMD in March 2025, with the new ones looking achievable: chief among them