欧洲食品与HPC：中国电商618活动对多数企业构成挑战，仅RKT和OR逆势增长

GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)growth of our coveredcompanies showed aslight decline of -1.4% in June, following a -1.8% drop in May. The last twomonths observed 6.18 shopping festival, one of the key events in China eCom.Our companies'average performance was mostly in-line with the market whichobserved-1.4% GMVdecline in last two months.The second quarter ended nearlyflatat-O.7%forourcompanies,althoughwithanotablemarketshareincreaseof +105bps. It's important to highlight that the Q2 GMV performance reflects asignificantslowdown for our companies in the Chinese e-commerce compared toQ1, which saw a GMV growth of +20%. After a strong start to the year in January(+20%) and February (+37%), the average GMV performance of our coverage hassteadily declined, suggesting that a recovery in China is still distant. Among thecompanies we cover, Reckitt maintained a strong performance throughout thequarter intheChinese e-commerce.L'Oreal experiencedflat GMVgrowth in Q2butrecorded impressive market share gains of+198bps.Conversely,Unilever, Henkel,and Nestle encountered DD declines in GMV, while Danone and Beiersdorf faceddeclines in theMSDandLSDranges, respectively, in Q2Companyspecifictrends in China e-commerce:L'Oreallexperienced modest GMV growth in June (6.18 sales) at +3.4%, following a similaretrend in May (6.18 pre-sales) with a growth rate of +3.6%. Notably, market share increasedCby+24Obpsduringthelasttwo periods,driven bystrongperformancesfromL'Oréal Paris(+94bps), Lancome & Kiehl's (+110bps each), SkinCeuticals (+133bps), and La Roche-Posay (+186bps). In the 6.18 event, YSL and SkinCeuticals emerged as the top performers,each achieving GMV sales growth of around +20%. In contrast, Kiehl's and L'Oreal Parissaw declines of -7% and -5%, respectively.Unilever's performance was weak at -19% GMV decline in 6.18 event and -15% in Q2.Notably, all the company's divisions struggled in Q2 with B&PC being major drag at -21%.Home Care performance was relatively resilient at -5% while its smallest division in ChinaeCom, F&R, ost -19% YoY in GMV.Reckitt continued seeing exceptionally high growth in China eCom with +44% GMVgrowth in June, following +21% growth in May. The Q2 GMV performance was robust at+35% with +370bps market share gain.Reckitt's divisions recorded varying performanceinQ2:1)Hygiene(~50%salesweight)recorded+52%GMVgrowthand+520bpsmarketshare gain. 2) Health recorded -7% GMV decline, however with +275bps share gain. 3)Nutrition had +64% GMV growth with market share gain at +75bps.Danone saw -18% GMV decline in June, following -5% decline in May. Q2 performanceby around -250Obps share loss. Danone's business in China eCom is heavily dominatedby Specialized Nutrition division and Aptamil is the major brand offering in SpecializedNutrition business. (Continued on next page..)www.bernsteinresearch.com Aptamil appears to be consistently under pressure since the last 5 months with an averageshare loss of -260bps. We note an announcement from one of the top competitors inthe China infant milk formula (IMF) space regarding the launch of a subsidy program forexpectant families. This move is likely intensifying competition for Aptamil, and possiblyimpacting itsmarket share.Nestle suffered -23% GMV decline in June, following -19% decline in May. Q2 GMVperformance also remained largely weak at -13%. However, despite YoY GMV drop, Nestlecontinues to gain market share at +104bps in Q2, with enormous contribution from its P&LHenkel's GMV growth performance in the China eCom market was weak at -1 1% in last2 periods but maintained its market share. Performance continued to be diverging acrossboth divisions in May+June, with Beauty Care observing -23% GMV decline with -1Obpsshare loss, and Laundry & HC growing GMV at +56% with +7bps share gain.Beiersdorf experienced a slight decline in GMV growth during the 6.18 event, recordinga decrease of -1%. The company's GMV performance was strong in pre-sales in May,achieving +18%, but slipped to -22% in June. Despite this weak GMV growth, Beiersdorfachieved a significant market share increase of +401bps during the 6.18 event, largelydriven by the successful promotion of Nivea body lotion in May, which was endorsed byOlympicchampionSunYingsha.Notably,LaPrairiereportedan impressive+68%increasein GMV sales during 6.18. We note that we expect that the Nivea numbers are likely beingimpactedbyproductdiscontinuationsLindt continued observing weak GMV growth in China eCom at -29% in June, following-7% growth in May.Overall Q2 performance was equally weak at -19%. However, wewon'treadtoomuch intothese numbers as Lindt'ssales areheavilyconcentrated infestiveperiods in China (Nov-Jan).91BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP2 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingBEI.GR0BN.FPMHEN3.GRMHEN.GRMOR.FPMLISP.SWULISN.SWuNESN.SWMRKT.LN0ULVR.LN0UNA.NA0EDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICA