2Q25 收益预览：ELV 可能削减 EPS 领先

2Q25 Earnings Preview: ELV LeadsOff With Likely Cut to EPS We anticipate ELV will formally cut full-year EPS, see the mostrisk to OSCR, and expect UNH to guide to s20-21 of EPS U.S. Health Care Facilities & Managed CareNEUTRALUnchanged U.S. Health Care Facilities & Managed Medicaid, ACA Risk Remains: Several updates and pre-announcements (ELV, CNC, MOH) havealready flagged concerns in the Medicaid and ACA business lines. However, incremental updatesmay still skew negatively and there's little companies can say to reassure investors that thesebusiness lines are on a path to margin recovery in 2026. We expect ELV to cut 2025 EPS guidanceto $30-31 (-12% at the midpoint) and see significant risk to OSCR's 2Q and full-year MLR/EBITDAguidance, where every 100 bps of MLR is worth about $100 mn (50%) to 2025 EBIT. Elsewhere,we expect strong Evernorth revenue and a modest EPS beat from Cl, a solid HCB quarter andlikely EPS raise from CVS, and a possible EPS raise from HUM (now expected by most). See oneliners for all inside. Andrew Mok, CFA+12125265496andrew.mok@barclays.comBCI, US Tiffany Yuan+12125265568tffany.yuan@barclays.comBCI, US Thomas Walsh+1212526 5096thomas.walsh@barclays.comBCI, US UNH to Reinstate EPS Guidance: We expect UNH to reinstate 2025 EPS guidance in the $20-21range (-26% y/y), which implies MA margins of 0.5-1.0% and generally aligns with investorexpectations. Our sense is that the market wants to celebrate an achievable EPS guidance(understandable), but we are looking for aggressive 2026 MA bid/benefit commentary thatsupports long-term EPS growth (13-16%) given the lowgr stfting point and outlines a crediblepath back to $23+ of EPs for 2026. Without that, inyestors need to rely on multiple expansion foran attractive return, which is less compelling iethe current cost trend environment. With this,we lower our2025and 2026EPS to $2Q.05Gnd $23.03, respectively. Mingchuan Song+1 212 526 9787mingchuan.song@barclays.comBCI, US Hospital Volumes Softer, CgsWel-Controlled, Tennessee Approved: Our latest surveyindicates a deceleration of 50-100 bps across most volume categories, which finished +2.5% onaverage, but well-controlled costs. We believe most providers benefiting from the TennesseeSDP will record four quarters of revenue in 2Q with the exception of HCA. This partially de-risksthe 2Q ramp for ACHC (although we still have fundamental concerns) and potentiallycomplicates guidance expectation for UHS, which is more likely to reiterate given a slower rampat Cedar Hill. We believe THC and HCA are both tracking ahead of plan and are most confidentthat THC will raise full-year EBITDA guidance across the group. Elsewhere, we see anotherstrong quarter and potential guidance raise at EHC and see a more challenging setup for DVAand RDNT. Recent Research Highlights : 2H25 Outlook: UNH: Stressing 2025 EPS and Top Inbounds Answered: Accelerating Pharmacy Cost Trend: Assessing Medicaid Provisions of Reconciliation Bill Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. : MA Risk Score Analysis. What's Weighing on Behavioral Health?: Hospital Expert Call - Texas Health System CFO: Refreshing Tariff Analysis One-Liners, Setups, and Expectations5Barclays Estimates and Options-Implied Stock Moves8UNH and ELV Setups.9CNC and MOH Pre-Announcement Read-Throughs11Provider 2Q Earnings Seasonality and Calendar ConsiderationsUtilization Trends Moderate15Pharmacy Trends16Labor and Supply Cost Trends20Hospital EBITDA Bridges22 One-Liners, Setups, and Expectations UNH: We expect UNH to reinstate 2025 EPS guidance in the $20-21 range (-26% y/y), whichimplies MA margins of 0.5-1.0% and generally aligns with investor expectations. Our sense isthat the market wants to celebrate an achievable EPS guidance (understandable), but we arelooking for aggressive 2026 MA bid/benefit commentary that supports long-term EPS growth(13-16%) given the lower starting point and outlines a credible path back to $23+ of EPS for2026. Without that, investors need to rely on multiple expansion for an attractive return, whichis less compelling in the current cost trend environment. With this, we lower our 2025 and 2026EPS to $20.05 and $23.03, respectively. ELV: With its late May update, the company revised down 2Q EPS by S0.80 to about s8.70 onACA and Medicaid pressure. However, ELV maintained full-year guidance and assumed that 2Qpressure wouldn't fully run-rate into 2H25 and G&A cuts could offset MLR pressure. More recentupdates from CNC and MOH point to incremental pressure in ACA and Medicaid business lines,which we believe puts full-year EPS at risk. We expect 2Q MLR of 89.8% (80 bps above Street)and EPS of s7.88 (14% below