欧洲能源服务：一帆风顺，但会陷入平静吗？

CRestricted - External European Energy ServicesPOSITIVEUnchangedEuropean Energy ServicesMick Pickup+44 (0)20 3134 6695mick.pickup@barclays.comBarclays, UKPratik Kadam+91 (0)22 6175 2301pratik.kadam@barclays.comBarclays, UK Note: We have not included previews for Petrofac and Wood, whose shares remain suspended,the former involved in a restructuring process and the latter yet to report FY24.7ec2 What happened in 2Q?2Q25 was quieter for the broader Energy Services sector. However, on the consensus front(Bloomberg), we saw positive EBITDA revisions, most notably for Aker Solutions and Maire,supported by stronger 1Q25 results along with a guidance upgrade for Aker Solutions, and oninvestor expectations of an earnings upgrade from Maire at the 2Q stage driven by strong orderinflow, while there was a notable downgrade in TGS due to slower-than-expected recovery intheseismic marketand lowerfleet utilization.FIGURE3.2026FEBITDAmovements inconsensusL %0950%40%%020%10%%0(10)%(20)%(30)%EADMNOCDRISource: BloombergFIGURE5.2026Fsalesmovementsinconsensus60%40%20%0%(20)%(40)% -EADMNOCDRISource: BloombergIntermsofnewordersbyvalue,2Q25sawanaccelerationfrom1Q.Figure6andFigure7belowdetail 26 announcements that we tracked with a combined value of c. Uss14.5bn, versus 19 lastquarter with a combined value of ca. Uss1obn. Also, numerous collaborations and early-phasestudieswereannounced in2Q25too earlytobe included inthebacklog, but we still seethese as signs of opportunity as the next generation of energy technologies is industrialised. AKSOELTMYTDQTDLTM YTD QTD5 Source: BloombergFIGURE 4.2025F sales movements in consensus%0940%20%0%(20)%NOCDRISource:Bloomberg10July2025 ValuationThe global sector (WOGPLS Index (Bloomberg) declined by c. 10% in 2Q25, underperformingthe wider Energy sector (SxEP) by 8% and oil prices by 1%. However, the European sector(EMEAOGP Index) increased during the period, up 4%. Our approach to valuation remains DCF-based, and the implied WAcC for the sector reduced to c.13% during the quarter, lower than therecent past but still elevated versus previous in-cycle times.FIGURE 8. Unweighted implied average WACC, per our DCF-based analysis22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%Source: Barclays Research estimatesSector share prices improved over the quarter (for eight of our 13 portfolio companies), thusincreasing the sector multiple compared to last quarter. Interestingly, the four best performerswere all the E&C names with strong backlogs as investors started to appreciate what theoverbooks mean for near-term earnings growth. The sector is now trading on 5.8x 2025FEV:EBITDA and falling to 5.0x 2026F, still some way behind historical levels. With new awardsarriving and underpinning 2025/26F numbers, we expect them to be the catalyst forperformance going forward as wider oil macro concerns work through.FIGURE 9. Relative share price performance of our coverage names over 2Q2580.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%40.0%Source: Bloomberg AverageWACCQoQYoY8 Company ProfilesADNOC DrillingADNOC Drilling recorded a strong quarter in terms of order intake, totalling ca. USs4.4bn awardsin Abu Dhabi. This comprised an award for five-year Integrated Drilling Services contract; a five-year contract for hydraulic fracturing services across assets in the region; contract for threejack-up rigs. Moreover, the company also announced acquisition of 70% stake in SLB's landplans in the GCC region. Investors' focus will likely be on the execution of projects and thecompany's expansion plans outside Abu Dhabi with the company stepping in Kuwait and Omanduring the quarter. Earnings-wise, we expect 2Q25 revenues of EUR1,148mn, broadly in linewith Bloomberg consensus of EUR1,173mn and EBITDA of EUR523mn, lower than consensus ofEUR539mn, with an EBITDA margin of 45.5%.2Q24A441284337157935(539)39642.3%(41)357(EE)324(29)8.9%29516,0000.02 1Q25A2Q25F2025F2026F4945092,0652,2710000530000EEE3441,3771,4313422951,2611,3831,1701,1484,7035,085(723)(713)(2,880)(3,080)4474351,8232,00638.2%37.9%38.8%39.4%(49)(46)(188)(203)1331214122444033941,6511,820(29)(33)(128)(144)3743611,5231,676(33)(33)(137)(151)8.8%9.0%9.0%9.0%3413291,3861,52516,00016,00016,00016,0000.020.0260°00.0910 Conference call details:Date: 30 July 2025Time:01:00pmBSTWebcast linkResult release: NAFIGURE 11.Quarterly EarningsUSD, mnRevenuesOnshoreOffshore JackupOffshore IslandOffshoreOFSTotal RevenuesDirect costGross profitGross profit margin, %General and administrative expensesshare of results of JVOtherincomeOperating profitFinacial expenses - netProfit before taxIncome taxTax rate, %Profit after taxWeighted avg. number of shares, mnEPS, $Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates10July2025 Aker SolutionsAfter a record order intake logged last quarter, 2Q25 was quieter for Aker Solutions with totalorder intake at ca. NOK4bn, including a contract for a steel substructure for a 2GW HVDCconverter station in Europe. Operationally, with a strong backlog already in hand, focus willlikely be on the