能源Sigma：OPEC+减产加速对油市影响微乎其微

pletephase-outoftheadjustmentbyone548 kb/d aggregate increase in targets forCSRestricted - External Oil Balances 10 Jul 25.xlsx Commodities ResearchAmarpreet Singh+12125261672amarpreet.x.singh@barclays.comBCI, US December 2024 with a large majority of the increase coming from Brazil where production istrending largely in line with our forecast. The country's output is up 2oo kb/d during the first fivemonths of the year, compared with our 270 kb/d growth forecast for the full year.Having said that, a potential unwind of the first round of voluntary adjustments, which cameinto effect in May 2023, in Q4 25 is a key risk to our constructive view, as that could lead togreater-than-expected surplus next year. But the flip side to that is it would come at the expenseof spare capacity and will likely highlight capacity constraints within the group even more. Forexample, Russia (Figure 37) and Kazakhstan (Figure 40) exports have been largely movingsideways since Q1 25.In addition, there is limited evidence so far that the group is willing to sacrifice the health ofspot fundamentals for the sake of market share. The scarcity premium embedded in the frontend of the WTI curve is actually up 12% (Figure 2) since 'Liberation Day', bolstering our view thatthe pivot was likely more a function of better-than-expected fundamentals and externalinfluence.Lastly,thegrouphas consistentlymaintainedthatitisopentopausingoreven reversingtheproduction increases at any point, if fundamentals warrant, and a further unwind of cuts wouldonly add to the dry powder for that move.FIGURE2.Elevatedscarcitypremiumsignalsstrongspotfundamentals50%BrazilTotal45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%C5%%0Jan-19Jan-22Jan-25Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24Sep-24May-25Note: Scarcity premium embedded in the prompt 3-month calendar spread of theWTI curveSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: EIA, CS, AER, ANP, Barclays Research10 July 2025 Key price,inventory, flows, and positioning indicatorsFIGURE 4.ICEBrentfutures curve over time,$/bFIGURE5.NYMEXWTI futures curveovertime,$/b8580 -1-month range807/8/202575-1weekago75-•1monthago707065650955Month5550611131517192123Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. Aggregate positioning in Brent and WTI, percentile, back toFIGURE 7.Aggregate prompt two-month time spread, $/b20141009080706050403020100Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Jun-24Jun-25Note: Net speculative positioning in Brent and WTI futures and options combined,Note: Aggregate Brent, WTI, and Dubai first- and third-month spread.percentile rank based on data going back to 2014.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research10July2025 Source: EIA, Barclays ResearchFIGURE19.ARAgasolinestocks,mb16-14心105-year rangeSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Note: NYH RBOB minus NYMEX WTI.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE23.US diesel days of demand6055504540353025205-yr. range—2025Note: Weekly stocks/four-week average demand.Source: EIA, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 22. RBOB positioning and price120100806040200-20-40-60-80Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23LongIShortNote: Positioning data in K contracts.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research10 July2025 Source: Kpler, Barclays ResearchFIGURE35.UAE seaborne total oil exports,mb/d4.13.93.73.53.33.12.92.72.5JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2023Note: Pipeline exports not included. Four-week average flow rate.Source: Kpler, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE51.ICETTFfuturescurveovertime,EUR/MWh4540-353025157911Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Barclays | Energy SigmaAnalyst(s) Certification(s):I, Amarpreet Singh, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually,"Barclays").the local time where the report was produced and may differ from the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019orcall+1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliates regularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as