出口在第二季度下滑前出现反弹

China Economy Exports bounced up ahead of softeningin2H Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s exportscame in abovemarketexpectations as contraction of exportstotheUS narrowed. Exports of transportation equipmentand chips remainedrobustwhile labor-intensive products and rare earth remained subdued.Imports rebounded thanks to robustAI-related demand, as imports volume ofcopper ore, copper products and integrated circuits picked up. The CN-USshipping priceshave plunged by 60%shortlyafter the surge following the tarifftruce,indicating that the front-loading demand may lose steam.Lookingforward,we think US-China trade negotiations may shape China’s policydirection.Underour baseline scenario,the US and China may reachconsensus on partial trade issues and sign a phase-one agreement, in whichChinawould gradually shift policy focus toward economic rebalancing,moderately widening the fiscal deficit. The broad fiscal deficit ratio (defined asofficial fiscal deficit + local government special bonds + special sovereignbonds)may rise from 8.4%in 2025 to 9.0%in 2026.Spending wouldincreasingly shift from infrastructure and corporate subsidies toward householdtransfers, social security, and consumption subsidies, with further efforts toreduce industrial overcapacity and support a moderately stronger RMB. Weexpect China’s export growth to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%.The RMB mayappreciate against the USDwith theUSD/RMB ratedroppingfrom the current7.15 to 7.1 by year end. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Exports rebounded as contraction of exports to the US narrowed.Exportsbounced up to5.8%(all on a YoY basis unless specified) inJunefrom 4.8% in May,beatingmarket expectationat3.2%.Exports to the USrecovered to-16.1% in June compared to-34.5% in May, as thetariffstrucesince mid-May drove exports front-loading. Shipments to ASEAN and Africapicked up to 16.8% and 34.8%inJunefrom 14.8% and 33.3%. Exports totheEU slowed down from 12% to 7.6% in June, as the ongoing EU-Chinatrade tensions mounted. Exports to Latin America, South Korea and Russiadeclined in June, whilethose toIndia and UK moderated. Trade surplusexpanded to US$115bn in June, one of the largest months in history, whichshould boostedChina’sGDP growth in 2Q25. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Transportation equipmentand chips were the major drivers.Ship andmotor vehicles rose by 23.6% and 23.1% in June, compared to 43.7% and13.7% in May, while integrated circuits remained robust at 24.2% YoYgrowth, moderating from 33.4%. Other tech products including cellphonesand personal computersnarrowed their contraction to-2.8% and-10.4%, upfrom-3.8% and-23.2% in May.Low value-added exports including textileyam, travel goods & bags and garment remainedsubdued, while housing-related products including furniture and lamps & lighting productsreboundedfrom-9.7% and-7.5% to 0.6% and 1.2%. Rare earth remained in deepcontraction at-46.9% in June compared to-48.3% in May, as its exportshave become a key bargaining chipin tariff negotiations. Imports rebounded as AI-related demand remained robust.China’simports of goodsdipped from-3.4% in May to 1.1%in June,better than themarket expectationsof 0.2%. Imports fromtheUSmoderately edged up to-15.5% in June from-18.1%.AI-related demand was strong, as importvolume of copper ore and copper products rose 1.7% and 5.5% in Junecompared to 6.2% and-15.7%in May, while integrated circuits, the largestimport category, accelerated to 11.44%.For energy products, import volumeofcrude oiland natural gas rebounded by 7.4% and 1.1% while coal notablydropped 26% in June.Import volume of raw materialsincludingiron orerebounded,while intermediate goods showed a mixed picture.Steelproductsand plastics declined 17.5% and 10.5% in importvolume while rubber rose by 27.4% in June.Import volume ofcrops moderated as grainand soybean eased to-6.1% and 10.4% in June from 4.5% and36.2%inMay. US-China trade negotiations may shape China’s policy direction.TheCN-US shipping priceshave plunged by 60%, shortly after the demandsurge following the tariff truce,indicating thatthefront-loading demandmaylosesteam in the coming months.Looking forward,under our baselinescenario, the US and Chinamayreach consensus on partial trade issuesand sign a phase-one agreement. US tariffs on Chinese goods may declinefrom the current 51% to 30-40%. China would gradually shift policy focustoward economic rebalancing, moderately widening the fiscal deficit. Thebroad fiscal deficit ratio (defined as official fiscal deficit + local governmentspecial bonds + special sovereign bonds) may rise from 8.4% in 2025 to9.0% in 2026. Spending would increasingly shift from infrastructure andcorporatesubsidies toward household transfers,social security,andconsumption subsidies, with further efforts to reduce industrial overcapacityand support a moderately stronger RMB.We expect China’s export growthto de