在撒哈拉以南非洲浏览外部融资不断发展的景观（英）2025

Navigating the Evolving Landscapeof External Financing in Sub- Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire,Hamza Mighri, Can Sever, Luc Tucker WP/25/139 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025JUL IMF Working PaperAfrican Department Navigating the Evolving Landscape of External Financingin Sub-Saharan AfricaPrepared by Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire,Hamza Mighri, Can Sever, and Luc Tucker Authorized for distribution by Amadou Sy IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:The landscape ofexternalfunding flows to sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)hasevolved significantlyover the past two decades. This paperprovides an overview ofthenon-officialexternalfinancingsources,emphasizingthe trade-offs between foreign and domestic currency-denominated debt.Usingdata fromemerging and developingeconomies, weassessthelikelihoodof issuing Eurobonds orborrowinginthesyndicated loanmarket, focusing on theimplications forSSA.Wealsoanalyzethemaindrivers ofyieldsat issuanceandbondspreads,alongwiththe reliability ofcredit ratingsandthepotentialexistenceof an WORKING PAPERS Navigating the EvolvingLandscape of External Financing Prepared byAdrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire, HamzaMighri, Can Sever,andLuc Tucker1 Contents I. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 African Risk Premium.....................................................................................................................................8Spreads analysis..........................................................................................................................................10 Trends and developments in the syndicated loan market............................................................................15Likelihood of issuance: Main Results...........................................................................................................17Dominance analysis.....................................................................................................................................17Likelihood of issuance: Predictive Power of domestic and global factors....................................................19 Recent trends...............................................................................................................................................22Estimating the impact of non-resident ownership of domestic-currency debt..............................................24Higher non-resident ownership is typically found to reduce yields........................................................24As well as reducing yields, higher non-resident ownership can also increase yield volatility................26 VI. Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................29 TABLES........................................................................................................................................................31FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................44 I.Introduction Aftera series of shocks that started withtheCovid-19 pandemic, emerging marketsand developing economies(EMDEs)havefacedconsiderablefinancingchallengesdue toincreasinglyhigh levels ofdebtand debtservice. Thisissuehasbecomeeven more relevantin aglobalenvironmentwithhigher-for-longerinterestratesandelevatedpolicyuncertainty. A significantshareof thesovereigndebt is denominated in foreign currency, Ourempirical studyexploresthe evolving landscape of funding flows toSSAcountries, with a particular focuson the comparative importance of variousexternalprivatesources,as well asthe trade-offs between foreigncurrency and domestic currency-denominated debt.Additionally, weevaluate the feasibility and potentialbenefits of issuing Eurobonds or engaging in syndicated loans as alternative external financing strategies. Todo so,weprovide a comprehensiveanalysisof thekeydriversofinternational bondcosts, both in primary andsecondary markets,focusing also on the existence of an "African Premium"–the extra borrowing cost paid by This paper takes a holistic approach by comparingthemainsources ofexternalfinancing ̶Eurobonds,syndicated bank loans, and non-resident flows into local bond markets ̶available to governments inemergingmarket and developing economies(EMDEs). Theempiricalanalysisandresults will therefore be useful topolicymakers in considering their debt financing strategies, weighing opp