食品价格飙升威胁到欧盟最近的经济增长

11159A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper11159The surge in food prices following the 2021 economicrebound has become a significant concern for households,particularly low-income ones, in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland,and Romania. Food price inflation, which surpasses generalinflation rates, risks worsening poverty and food insecurityin these countries. This paper explores the distributionalimpacts of rising food prices and the effectiveness of gov-ernmentresponse measures.Low-income households,who allocate a larger share of their income to food, aredisproportionately affected and are struggling to cope withThis paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank toprovide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. PolicyResearch Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted atmrobayo@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. POLIWORTRANSPARENTANALYSIS unexpected expenses, leading to increased difficulties inaccessing proper nutrition. Simulations indicate that risingfood prices contribute to higher poverty rates and greaterincome inequality, especially among vulnerable populations.They also suggest that the main poverty-targeted social assis-tance schemes offer critical support for the extreme poor,but expanding both coverage and benefits is vital to shieldall at-risk individuals. Targeted policies that balance imme-diate relief with long-term resilience-building are essentialto addressing the challenges posed by escalating food prices.ESEARCHGPAPERS CYRKIN Soaring Food Prices Threaten Recent Economic Gains inthe EU1Monica Robayo-Abril1Leonardo Lucchetti2Lukas Delgado-Prieto3Reena Badiani-Magnusson41World Bank2World Bank3World Bank and University of Oslo4World BankJEL classification: I32, I38, D31, E31.Keywords: food prices, distributional impacts, social protection, EU-SILC, Romania,Croatia, Bulgaria, Poland.1This paper was prepared as part of theEuropean UnionPovertyand EquityProgram inThe World Bank’s Global Poverty Practice.This paper also contributed to theWorld BankEU Regional Economic Report 10(A Path to Inclusive Growth inthe EU amidInflation and Fiscal Constraints), specifically informing the section on inclusive growth.The authors are grateful for commentsandcontributionsprovided bypeer reviewersAnna FrutteroandZurabSajaia,as well asNga Nguyen,Nadia BelhajHasine,EmilijaTimmis,Desislava Nikolova,Andrei Silviu Dospinescu,Josip Funda,Iva Tomic,CatalinPauna,ColletteMariWheeller,RomanZhukovskyi,andManuelaSofia Stanculescu. I.IntroductionIn recent years,globalfood prices have surged significantly, driven by a confluence of factorsthat have escalated the cost of essential goods.The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)(2022) attributes part of this rise to global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19pandemic, which led to delays in transportation, labor shortages, and production interruptions.Additionally, climate change has intensified the situation, with extreme weather events likedroughts and floods damaging crops and reducing yields (IPCC 2021). The FAO (2023) also pointsto increased global demand for food, compounded by supply constraints such as limited arableland and resources.The rising costs of agricultural inputs, including fertilizers and fuel, furthercontribute to the higher production costs reflected in consumer prices (IFPRI 2022). Economicpolicies and trade barriers, including tariffs and export restrictions, have exacerbated pricevolatility and reduced global food supply (WTO 2021). Together, these factors have collectivelydriven up food prices, impacting consumers worldwide.Theriseof food pricesbecame asignificant concern for households in theEuropean Unionafter the economic rebound in 2021,especially those at the lower end of the incomedistributionwhohadfewermeanstocushion the impact ofthese price hikes.In recent years,inflationhas showna marked increase.As ofFe