需求维持高位，钢企利润改善

报告摘要新不及时风险。 钢铁评级：分析师：任恒执业证书编号：S0740525010001Email：renheng@zts.com.cn分析师：谢鸿鹤执业证书编号：S0740517080003Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn基本状况上市公司数行业总市值(亿元)行业流通市值(亿元)行业-市场走势对比相关研究1、《制造业需求维持韧性，钢铁价格支撑仍在》2025-06-292、《钢铁需求平稳，关注短流程减产》2025-06-153、《原料让利，螺纹钢高炉利润回升》2025-06-02 增持（维持）8,982.198,514.74 44 内容目录一周市场回顾..............................................................................................................4本周钢铁板块上涨4.41%.....................................................................................4黑色期货价格回升...............................................................................................5基本面跟踪..................................................................................................................6本周五大钢材表观消费同比下降.........................................................................6钢铁库存下降.......................................................................................................7铁水产量上升，电炉产能利用率回落..................................................................8钢价环比回升.......................................................................................................9铁矿价格环比回升.............................................................................................10吨钢盈利能力提升.............................................................................................12下游表观需求.....................................................................................................13重要事件...................................................................................................................15风险提示...................................................................................................................16图表目录图表1：本周各申万板块涨跌幅................................................................................4图表2：黑色商品一周表现（元/吨）......................................................................5图表3：五大品种总表观消费量（万吨）.................................................................6图表4：5日平均建筑钢材成交量（吨）..................................................................6图表5：螺纹钢表观消费量（万吨）........................................................................6图表6：热轧板卷表观消费量（万吨）....................................................................6图表7：冷轧表观消费量（万吨）............................................................................6图表8：中厚板表观消费量（万吨）........................................................................6图表9：历年五大品种总库波动（万吨）.................................................................7图表10：历年螺纹钢库存波动（万吨）..................................................................7图表11：历年热轧库存波动（万吨）......................................................................7图表12：历年冷轧库存波动（万吨）......................................................................7图表13：历年线材库存波动（万吨）......................................................................7图表14：历年中厚板库存波动（万吨）..................................................................7图表15：247家钢企铁水产量（万吨）...................................................................8图表16：87家电弧炉开工率及产能利用率（%））.................................................8图表17：五大品种周度产量（万吨）......................................................................8图表18：螺纹钢周度产量合计（万吨）..................................................................8图表19：热轧周度产量（万吨）.............................................................................8图表20：冷轧周度产量（万吨）.............................................................................8图表21：钢铁现货价格涨跌幅（元/吨）.................................................................9图表22：钢铁指数涨跌幅（元/吨）.........................................................................9图表23：原料价格涨跌幅......................................................................................10图表24：铁矿石供需数据（万吨）........................................................................10图表25：247家钢厂进口烧结粉矿库存（万吨）...................................................11图表26：全球铁矿石发货量（万吨）....................................................................11图表27：螺纹钢高炉毛利变化（元/吨）...............................................................12图表28：建筑用钢电炉毛利变化（元/吨）...........................................................12图表29：热轧卷板毛利变化（元/吨）..................................................................12图表30：冷轧卷板毛利变化（元/吨）..................................................................12图表31：247家钢厂盈利比例（%）.......................................................................12 -2-请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 -3-请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分图表32：中国水泥出库量（万吨）........................................................................13图表33：中国PVC产量（万吨）...........................................................................13图表34：半钢轮胎产能利用率（%）......................................................................13图表35：全钢轮胎产能利用率（%）......................................................................13图表36：汽车销量（辆）......................................................................................13图表37：家用空调销量（万台）...........................................................................13图表38：冰箱销量（万台）...............