有色金属铝半年度报告：供给放缓、需求分化、库存低位，低多

2025年7月10日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分一、行情回顾..........................................................................................................................................................................-5-二、成本：氧化铝价格磨底，电解铝利润可观.................................................................................................................-6-三、供给：国内产量增幅放缓，原铝进口俄铝为主.......................................................................................................-10-3.1产量增幅放缓，铝水比例提高............................................................................................................................-10-3.2进口窗口关闭，进口俄铝为主............................................................................................................................-13-3.3供给增幅放缓，铝锭库存偏低............................................................................................................................-14-四、需求：终端消费或分化，铝整体需求存忧...............................................................................................................-15-4.1初端加工：细分领域有分化；铝材出口同比减................................................................................................-15-4.2终端消费：终端预期分化，消费整体存忧........................................................................................................-16-五、库存：铝水比例提高，社库淡季仍低.......................................................................................................................-21-六、展望................................................................................................................................................................................-22-图1：沪铝加权日线图.....................................................................-5-图2：铝矿砂及其精矿净进口数量...........................................................-6-图3：铝矿砂及其精矿进口数量:分国别......................................................-6-图4：铝土矿港口库存.....................................................................-7-图5：氧化铝企业铝土矿库存...............................................................-7-图6：国产铝土矿价格.....................................................................-7-图7：进口铝土矿价格.....................................................................-7-图8：中国冶金级氧化铝产量...............................................................-8-图9：中国冶金级氧化铝产能利用率.........................................................-8-图10：海外冶金级氧化铝产量..............................................................-8-图11：中国氧化铝净进口数量..............................................................-8-图12：中国氧化铝港口库存................................................................-9-图13：中国电解铝厂氧化铝厂内库存........................................................-9-图14：中国（除新疆）氧化铝厂内库存......................................................-9-图15：中国氧化铝库存....................................................................-9-图16：电解铝冶炼利润...................................................................-10-图17：氧化铝生产利润...................................................................-10-图18：中国电解铝产量...................................................................-11-图19：中国电解铝产能利用率.............................................................-11-图20：云南降水量.......................................................................-11-图21：白鹤滩水库水位：08时............................................................-11-图22：溪洛渡水库水位：08时............................................................-11-图23：溪洛渡水库出库流量：08时........................................................-11-图24：向家坝水库水位：08时............................................................-12-图25：向家坝水库出库流量：08时........................................................-12-图26：云南水力发电发电量...............................................................-12-图27：云南发电量.......................................................................-12-图28：中国电解铝产量:周................................................................-12- 融通社会财富·创造多元价值-2- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分融通社会财富·创造多元价值-3-图29：中国电解铝铝水比例...............................................................-12-图30：全球原铝产量.....................................................................-13-图31：全球原铝产量（除中国）...........................................................-13-图32：电解铝现货进口利润...............................................................-13-图33：电解铝净进口量...................................................................-13-图34：未锻压铝及废铝净进口.............................................................-14-图35：铝材及铝制品净出口...............................................................-14-图36：国内电解铝供给...................................................................-14-图37：中国铝材产量.....................................................................-14-图38：铝型材开工率.....................................................................-15-图39：铝型材产量.......................................................................-15-图40：铝板带箔开工率...................................................................-15-图41：铝板带箔产量.....................................................................-15-图42：铝杆开工率..................................