流动性：扰动因素增加，资金后续怎么看？

证券研究报告。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com相关报告些变化》2025-07-112.《反内卷转债梳理》2025-07-08 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1扰动因素增加，资金后续怎么看？.......................................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示...........................................................................................................93央行：关注未来一周是否有买断式逆回购操作.................................................................................114政府债：下周政府债净缴款上升至3985亿元...................................................................................115票据：走势分化，跨半年票据利率下行.............................................................................................136汇率：统计期升值，人民币即期汇率录得7.17.................................................................................147市场资金供需：银行体系融出回落，非银降低杠杆.........................................................................158CD：国有行净融资为负，二级存单收益率上行...............................................................................198.1一级发行市场：本周国有行净融资继续为负，发行利率下降....................................................198.2二级交易市场：活跃度下移，需求端疲软带动存单收益率上移................................................219风险提示.................................................................................................................................................22图1.本周央行投放情况.................................................................................................................................5图2. DR001和R001本周走势......................................................................................................................5图3.净回笼背景下国有行净融出回落.........................................................................................................6图4.本周资金体感情况.................................................................................................................................6图5.大行买债明显逆季节性.........................................................................................................................7图6. Shibor 3M开始延续下行......................................................................................................................7图7.存单净融资转负.....................................................................................................................................8图8.货基、农商、基金对存单诉求较疲软.................................................................................................8图9.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.................................................................................................................9图10.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................10图11.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................11图12.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................11图13.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................11图14.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................11图15.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................12图16.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................12内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图17.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................12图18.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................13图19.地方政府债净融资进度.....................................................................................................................13图20.政府债发行和缴款日历.....................................................................................................................13图21.票据绝对利率走势.............................................................................................................................14图22.票据相对利率走势.............................................................................................................................14图23.即期汇率相对中间价贬值情况.........................................................................................................14图24. USDCNY、USDCNH掉期点...........................................................................................................14图25. USDCNY和中间价，跌停价之间关系............................................................................................15图26.逆周期因子情况.................................................................................................................................15图27.资金供需情况......................................................................