尼日利亚的财政预测错误

Fiscal ForecastingErrors in Nigeria Salma Khalid SIP/2025/095 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 29, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/158. 2025JUL IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Fiscal Forecasting Errors in NigeriaPrepared by Salma Khalid Authorized for distribution by Axel SchimmelpfennigJuly 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/158. ABSTRACT:The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning’s budget implementation reports reveal largefiscal forecast errors over the 2011-2023 period, for a range of fiscal aggregates including total revenues,expenditures, and the fiscal deficit. Revenues forecasts errors are driven by optimistic budget projections for oilproduction which consistently exceed actual outturn. Capital expenditures are also subject to systematicoptimism bias, with outturn falling short of budget allocations. Large fiscal forecast errors limit the usefulness ofthe budget in providing a framework for the authorities’ fiscal policy intentions. Cross-country experiencesuggests that the quality of budget forecasts can be improved by enhancing the capacity of the macro-fiscalunit responsible for forecasting, publishing internal and external forecast performance reviews, and enhancingpolitical commitment to budget targets. By improving the quality of fiscal forecasts, the authorities can enhancethe credibility of the budget in serving as a guide to fiscal policy in Nigeria. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Salma Khalid. 2025. Fiscal Forecasting Errors in Nigeria. IMF Selected IssuesPaper SIP/2025/095 FISCAL FORECASTING ERRORSIN NIGERIA Prepared by Salma Khalid (FAD)1 NIGERIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByTheAfricanDepartment Prepared By Salma Khalid (FAD. Chris Stumphius (AFR)provided research assistance and Joanna Delcambre (AFR)editorial support. CONTENTS FISCAL FORECASTING ERRORS IN NIGERIA___________________________________________ 2 A. Motivation ____________________________________________________________________________ 2B. Revenues ______________________________________________________________________________ 3C. Expenditures __________________________________________________________________________ 7D. Fiscal Deficit___________________________________________________________________________ 9E. Conclusion and Policy Advice ________________________________________________________ 10 References ______________________________________________________________________________ 13 FISCAL FORECASTING ERRORS IN NIGERIA1 The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning’s budget implementation reports reveal large fiscalforecast errors over the 2011-2023 period, for a range of fiscal aggregates including totalrevenues, expenditures, and the fiscal deficit. Revenues forecasts errors are driven by optimisticbudget projections for oil production which consistently exceed actual outturn. Capitalexpenditures are also subject to systematic optimism bias, with outturn falling short of budgetallocations. Large fiscal forecast errors limit the usefulness of the budget in providing a frameworkfor the authorities’ fiscal policy intentions. Cross-country experience suggests that the quality ofbudget forecasts can be improved by enhancing the capacity of the macro-fiscal unit responsiblefor forecasting, publishing internal and external forecast performance reviews, and enhancingpolitical commitment to budget targets. By improving the quality of fiscal forecasts, the authoritiescan enhance the credibility of the budget in serving as a guide to fiscal policy in Nigeria. A.Motivation 1.A government’s budget represents a detailed financial plan for revenue collection andexpenditure allocation for a fiscal year.The budget process is important for ensuring fiscaldiscipline, efficient resource allocation, well-guided economic planning, and effective public servicedelivery. By providing a framework for fiscal decision making, the budget helps determine thedirection of fiscal policies, ensures discipline with respect to approved budget targets, and promotestransparency in terms of how fiscal resources are mobilized and spent. 2.Key to the budget preparation process is the development of credible fiscal forecastswhich provide a data-driven foundation for policy making.By developing realistic fiscalforecasts, budgets are less likely to run the risk of expenditure overruns or under execution, bybalancing the government’s ability to raise revenues and its borrowing abilities with the needs andcapacities of line ministries to apply these revenues towards operational a