驾驭新经济：生成式AI对行业与区域经济的影响

ContentChapter 1.IntroductionChapter 2.Unleashing efficiency: GenAI’s role in shapingsectoral productivity gains throughout regionsChapter 3.Bridging innovation and economy: themacroeconomic impact of GenAI across globalregionsChapter 4.Analyzing GenAI’s impact on the globaleconomy through a sectoral lensChapter 5.Impact of GenAI on sectors across regionsChapter 6.GenAI and the new economic era: businessleaders’ insights on the path to transformationChapter 7.SummaryChapter 8.Appendix Navigating the New Economy: The sectoral and regional effects of GenAI|0507142225333435 Navigating the New Economy: The sectoral and regional effects of GenAI|3Marek Rozkrut, PhD, EY Chief Economist — Europe & Central Asia, EYEMEIA Head of Economists Unit, Ernst & Young sp. z o.o.Mateusz Maksymiuk, Manager, Economic Analysis Team, Ernst &Young sp. z o.o.Oliwia Komada, PhD, Manager, Economic Analysis Team, Ernst &Young sp. z o.o.Maciej Łopusiński, Economist, Economic Analysis Team, Ernst & Youngsp. z o.o.Dominika Sikora-Kruszka, Economist, Economic Analysis Team, Ernst& Young sp. z o.o.Julia Kotowska, Economist, Economic Analysis Team, Ernst & Youngsp. z o.o.This report offers insights into the role of generative AI (GenAI) inshaping economic outcomes across regions and sectors. Our objective isto assess the extent to which GenAI is set to reshape region and sectorspecific productivity and thus, international competitiveness, trade,capital flows and finally GDP.In brief:■We expect GenAI to significantly impact productivity; however, theoutcomes will be region- and sector-dependent.■GenAI productivity gains have the potential to significantly affectinternational competitiveness, especially in regions where we expectadoption rates to be high. This will be of crucial importance for sectorshighly involved in global trade.■Uneven adoption of GenAI technologies across regions may lead to shiftsin global investment activity, contingent on barriers to cross-bordercapital flows and investor home bias.■The total impact of GenAI on the global economy will originate from bothproductivity enhancements and shifts in trade and investment patterns.Building upon previous EY studies on the impact of GenAI on i) capitalinvestment and ii) total factor productivity, in this report we analyze whatthese changes mean for global trade and investment flows, as well as sectoraloutcomes in different regions.1Our analysis begins with an overview of howwe expect GenAI to enhance sectoral productivity growth across regions.1In this report, we account for 11 regions: Western Europe, Southern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe(CEE), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Sub-Saharan Africa, as mentioned in ourpreviousarticles. Additionally, we include the USA and Canada, Developed Asia and Oceania, Latin America, theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asia, and the Rest of Europe and Central Asia. Detailson the composition of these regions are in the Appendix. AUTHORS: Navigating the New Economy: The sectoral and regional effects of GenAI|4Next, we apply the EY UPGRADE computable general equilibrium (CGE)model to quantify the economic impact of GenAI adoption across sectors andregions, using AI-driven productivity enhancements and capital investment asinputs to the model. Based on our modeling results, we present the expectedmacroeconomic effects of GenAI, focusing on cross-border trade and capitalflows. We then discuss the anticipated sectoral outcomes in different regions,drawing upon both sector-specific impacts and indirect effects stemming frombroader macroeconomic changes due to GenAI deployment.Key findings:■We expect GenAI to significantly impact productivity; however, theoutcomes will be region- and sector-dependentWe expect health care andadvanced manufacturing to lead the way, with estimated global TotalFactor Productivity (TFP) gains by 2033 ranging from 1.2% to 2.5% and1.0% to 2.4%, respectively, depending on the AI adoption scenario.■We expect GenAI to boost economic growth,particularly in DevelopedAsia and Oceania, Western Europe and the USA and Canada, with a globalreal GDP increase of up to 1.4% by 2033. GenAI’s impact on productivitywill shape this growth both directly and indirectly through shifts in globaltrade and investment activity.■Following significant TFP gains,the health care sector is likely to receivethe most significant boost from GenAI in terms of output, with its globaloutput anticipated to increase by up to 2.5%. Sectors such as education,public administration and professional services are also to benefit, whilethose with limited GenAI adoption, including agriculture and construction,may see smaller gains.■GenAI-driven productivity gains do not ensure output growth at theregion- and sector-level,given that shifts in comparative advantage andcapital flows affect such growth. Highly traded sectors are particularlyvulnerable to these economic shifts, while domestically oriented services,such as health c