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12841354BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH-1 St. Dev'74'79'84'89'94'99'04'09'14'19'24 13 June 2025Investment StrategyGlobalMichael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.comChart1: BofA Bull & Bear IndicatorRises to5.2from4.4Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.ExtremeBearishBuy2 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH465.2 2The Flow Show| 13 June 2025Weekly Flows: $15.0bn to bonds, $1.7bn to gold, $0.8bn to crypto, $9.1bn from cash,$10.0bn from stocks.Weekly Flows to Know:•Credit: inflows to both IG bonds ($7.8bn past week) and HY bonds ($2.0bn);•EM debt: 8thweek of inflows and 4thbiggest inflow ever ($3.8bn–Chart 4);•US equities: biggest outflow in 11 weeks ($9.8bn);•Europe equities: first outflow in 9 weeks ($0.6bn);•Brazil equities: biggest inflow since Jun'22 ($0.4bn).Flows to Know:•US assets: $2.6tn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $575bn = 3rdlargest year ever (Chart 5);•US assets foreign buying: $547bn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing$138bn = 2ndlargest year ever;•US stocks: $1.3tn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $316bn = 2ndlargest inflow ever;•US stocks foreign buying: $350bn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing$136bn = 2ndlargest year ever (Chart 6);•US vs RoW stocks: decade-to-date $1.3tn to US stocks & $0.3tn to Internationalstocks…US monopolization of global equity inflows has dropped from 86% in 2024to 72% in 2025.BofA Private Clients:$3.9tn AUM…63.3% stocks (highest since Apr'22); private clientsselling bonds at fastest pace in 2 months; in ETFs private clients buyingHY, TIPS, andutilities stocks past 4 weeks, selling Japan, dividend, and energy stocks.BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: jumps to 5.2 from 4.4 (largest jump since Oct'24 Chinastimulus); BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 3-month high on strong inflows to HY bonds &EM assets, robust credit market technicals, strong global stock index breadth.BofA Global Breadth Rule:when >88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices tradingabove 50-& 200-day moving averages…sell, and when >88% trading below…buy; past 3weeks 80-84% trading >50/200dma…stocks close to overbought territory.The Longest Pictures: in advance of publication of 7thedition of BofA’s LongestPictures, we showcase 20 charts on secular trends in the macro & markets in the 2020s(Charts 7-24). Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, GFD FinaeonChart5:2025 annualizing 3rdlargest year of inflow to US assetsUS assets fund flows (annual cumulative, $bn)Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR. *2025 YTD annualized-200020040060080010001200'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23US asset fund flows (cumulative, $bn) •2020s: past 5 years interest ratesupfrom5000-yearlowsto more historical norms as great disinflation of 1980-2020ended by start of fiscal excess & end of globalization.•2020s: era of big secular shifts in society (inequality toinclusion), policy (monetary to fiscal), trade (globalization toisolationism), all inflationary trends, all say bonds in early-stage secular bear market, won’t end until bond vigilantesforce governments to end big deficits and/or AI incitesjump in productivity/fall in labor costs via unemployment.•2025: that said, nothing more contrarian than being“longthe long bond”; we say good reasons to becyclicallylongbonds in’25 underappreciated…why bond returns +6% YTD.•2020s:big secular shift from small government to biggovernment; US budget deficit has averaged 9% of GDPpast 5 years driven by 65% jump in government spendingfrom $4.5tn to $7tn; set to remain 7-9% of GDP on passageof“One Big Beautifull Bill”.•Fun fact: government budget surpluses so rare…last timeChina ran budget surplus was 2007, US 2001, Japan 1992,France 1974, Italy 1905.•2020s: global government debt up 40% in past 4 years to$100tn; in 2025 US national debt currently $36tn, set torise to $39tn next year according to CBO.•US debt & deficits remain biggest reason consensus“shortthe long bond”and increasingly bearish the US dollar.•Fun fact: US interest payments on debt currently more than$1tn per annum and will keep rising until US Treasury 5-year yield (currently 4.0%) falls below 3.3%...why Trumpadministration wants Fed to ease rates quickly in H2’25. The Flow Show| 13 June 2025Interest rates since 3000BCSource:Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates"(2005), Bloomberg.Chart8:Defi