好时公司压力测试

Restricted - External HSYEQUAL WEIGHTU.S. FoodNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 165.00Price (12-Jun-25)USD 172.12Potential Upside/Downside-4.1%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. FoodAndrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668andrew.lazar@barclays.comBCI, USJoshua Bader, CPA, CFA+1 212 526 3084joshua.bader@barclays.comBCI, USJohnny Shamir+1 212 526 0908tzur.shamir@barclays.comBCI, US Notably, we have also seen an acceleration in trends in what has been a more subdued instantconsumable subsegment of the chocolate category. Based on NielsenIQ’s definition, the singleserve subsegment of the chocolate category has seen a return to dollar sales growth for the firsttime in the last seven 13-week periods.FIGURE 2. Non-seasonal single serve (i.e., instant consumable) chocolate category sales returned topositive YOY growth in the most recent 13-week period for the first time since the 13-week periodending 09/02/23Source: Barclays Research, NielsenIQFurthermore, closer in, we have seen trends improving meaningfully from the post Easter lows.Though we are careful to lend too much credence to smaller periods of time, we would notethat non-seasonal sales for the category grew +8% YOY in the most recent two weeks.FIGURE 3. Non-seasonal chocolate sales growth accelerated from -0.5% YOY for the week ending05/03/25 to +8% YOY in each of the two most recent weekly periods (ending 05/24/25 and 05/31/25).Source: Barclays Research, NielsenIQWhile it is hard to discern why chocolate category growth has been picking up while thebroader snacking landscape remains under pressure (not to mention just how sustainableit might be), we have a few potential theories.First, we think key category players, includingHSY, have started to pick up theireffortsaround innovation and commercial activation, whichare now starting to show through. Second, the chocolate category started to weaken earlierthan many other snacking categories such as salty and biscuits. Third, based on consumersurveys, it would appear that consumers have increased their stress eating over the past coupleof months, perhaps in part related to recent economic turmoil2 FIGURE 4. Despite what appears to be a recent sizable step up in priceFIGURE 5. ...elasticities have not deteriorated and remain athistorically favorable levelsSource: Barclays Research, NielsenIQPerhaps most important, thus far, demand elasticity from incremental category pricinghas appeared modest and below historical levels.Based on the NielsenIQ data, it wouldappear as if competitors are taking incremental pricing on non-seasonal chocolate. Ferrero inparticular saw a significant step up in price sometime around the beginning of March, andnotably, it appears as if elasticities for the company have remained at a relatively consistentlevel vs the pre-price period and, in an absolute sense, are favorable relative to history. So toohave we seen a similar dynamic for the broader non-seasonal chocolate category.This is important as HSY likely has more price that it will ultimately need to put in place. HSY hasclearly not come close to covering the cost of its commodity inflation this year and is likely tosee incremental YOY underlying cocoa cost inflation in 2026 – with the potential for atariffimpact still to come.From a share perspective, we think trends are generally in line with HSY’s expectations,with the better category being the upside surprise thus far. HSY is starting to see share gainsin its instant consumable business. On the 1Q25 earnings call, HSY discussed starting to seesome green shoots in this business in April, which appear to have continued through May. Atthis stage, we believe a lot of the progress is more a reflection of HSY-driven initiatives, such asbetter innovation, rather than incrementality from its more nuanced partnerships with keyretailers. On the other hand, take home, it would appear, is stillsofterwhile sweets continues tooutperform. Overall, CMG share is where HSY expected it to be, we believe.HSY expects share to be neutral to up in 2H25 driven by continued outperformance in sweets,continued strength in seasons, and continued improvement in trends in everyday chocolate aswell as refreshment. On chocolate, HSY has some incremental programming coming in thesummer and fall and robust innovation, including its biggest Reese’s launch ever. Plus, thecompany’s strategy to take a more nuanced approach to pricing in instant consumables inexchange for better partnership with retailers (i.e., incremental merchandising and shelfplacements), as we discussed on our recent Chicago trip (Chicago 2025: Uncertainty BreedsConservatism, 05/12/25), is now largely in place and, so far, more retailers are compliant on theplan than initially expected (i.e., retailers not raising on-shelf price). 3 Having said all this, HSY is still losing share in everyday chocolate, even while instantconsumable has been better of late. Additionally, HSY is likely benefiting at the moment fromhaving little in the way of innovation this