夏季前的思考：宝洁公司重组及其对大盘个人护理品行业的影响

Restricted - External U.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRALU.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, USKate Grafstein+1 212 526 5755kate.grafstein@barclays.comBCI, USHeather Gornik, CFA+1 212 526 9237heather.gornik@barclays.comBCI, USJim Abbott V+1 212 526 4602jim.abbott@barclays.comBCI, US to raise their game, too. But in the near term, we think some will have what they need withintheir current playbook in a prolonged period of more subdued category growth while for others,we think consumer behavior and global inflation will be key determinants.For example,Church & Dwightis following its tried and true M&A playbook having announcedan agreement to acquire Touchland, a premium hand sanitizer business, in mid-May. The asset-light/plug-and-play nature of the business fits well within CHD's historical wheelhouse, andwe'd think the brand will serve as a key growth driver as CHD focuses on expanding shelf spaceand growing internationally. The door was alsoleftwide open to further acquisitions this year,and we'd think a potential VMS divestiture would prove accretive to top-line growth.Meanwhile,Kimberly-Clarkis deep in the midst of its own multi-year cost savings /restructuring initiative, and frankly, is early in its journey at examining costs and supply chainthrough an enterprise-wide lens. Further, top-line trends should get aliftfrom the IFP JV (takingIFP out of consolidated figures) as well as heavier hitting, technical innovation across markets.At the other end of the spectrum may beColgate. The company has done a truly impressive job,in our view, restoring the "quality" of its P&L, getting gross margins closer to historical levels,and stepping up A&P close to 13.5% of sales on an annualized basis, a new annual high watermark for the business (or at least since 1997, which is as far as our model goes back). That said,the company has repeatedly mentioned its ability to "leverage the P&L" and that it recognizesthe importance of delivering dollar-based EPS growth. As it stands today, our 2025 estimate isfor 1-2% EPS growth and we hold A&P flat as a percentage of sales, but if we look into 2026,should category growth (and emerging markets inflation) remain subdued, it might get tougherto hold the line on advertising spend. Of course, a weaker dollar can be a strong support to thecompany's bottom-line performance, but as we think ahead to discussion of the 2030 Strategy,we can't help but wonder if Colgate could benefit from its own restructuringeffortsto enablereinvestment into innovation and scaling capabilities as well as support earnings. Recall,afteramuch larger multi-year restructuring that ended in 2019, Colgate implemented a smaller one-year restructuring in 2022, the Global Productivity Initiative, which was geared towardimproving supply chainefficiencyand reducing structural costs.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Lauren R. Lieberman, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdi