瑞典孤儿生物维特鲁姆2Q25预览：基本面稳固，Aspaveli 52周数据支持2026年增长

2Q25 Preview: fundamentalsintact despite seasonality.Aspaveli 52W data builds the casefor 2026 SOBIV.ST/SOBI SSOVERWEIGHTUnchanged European Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALUnchanged SOBI enters 2Q25 with stable underlying fundamentals butfaces near-term FX and seasonal headwinds. Recent 52-weekdata from the VALIANT study further supports Aspaveli’spotential in C3G and IC-MPGN, reinforcing confidence in its2026 launch as a key medium-term growth driver. Market Cap (SEK mn)101460Shares Outstanding (mn)356.00Free Float (%)57.7952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.4Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)10.57Current BVPS (SEK)113.64Source: Bloomberg We expect Q2 to reflect asofterquarter, largely due to currency headwinds and RSVseasonality, but see no change to the underlying fundamentals. That said, executionremains strong across key franchises, and the company continues to advance its globalfootprint. The FDA approved clesrovimab, with next ACIP meeting (as of now) still on June25-27(see:FDA Approves Clesrovimab for Infant RSV Prevention; HHS says June ACIP Is on. We stillthink Beyfortus remains well positioned. (10/06/25); European Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences:ACIP members being "retired" likely to compound sector policy concerns (09/06/25)). If ACIPmeeting happens as planned, we will get a more solid view on competitive landscape vsBeyfortus. Alongside our 2Q25 preview, we reiterate our OW rating and price target of SEK350. Price PerformanceExchange-STO52 Week rangeSEK 354.40-241.80 We recently spoke with the CFO, and provide the key takeaways from our conversation below: •FX Impact:SEK was relatively strong in starting Q1, limiting FX impact. but FX impact isexpected in Q2. Sobi's preliminary estimate of currency impact on Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024revenue is a negative impact between approximately 8% and 10% (calculated May 28th). Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting •Altovact:Strong market uptake: Germany, Switzerland. Uptake in Spain will happengradually due to the reimbursement system. Upcoming UK rollout, not expected to materiallyimpact Q2 performance. European Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciences •Elocta:Gradual decline. In Q1, some decline wasoffsetby international sales phasing. Overallstrategy is to increase combined hemophilia A market share. Shirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Alprolix:European market share remains strong. Emily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Charles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed: 15-Jun-25, 23:56 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 00:01 GMTRestricted - External •Doptelet:Momentum continues globally. No significant Q2 impact from Promacta genericsexpected.•Vonjo:Market dynamics unchanged. No short-term inflection expected.•Beyfortus:2Q is not RSV season. GM is expected to be impacted.•Gamifant:Growth from mixed patient base; HLH/MAS approval expected late June.•Operating expenses:Expected to rise in Q2 due to higher activity and preparation for twomajor 2026 launches. Model Changes:We slightly tweaked our forecast for Elocata and Alprolix. Adjusted theoperating expense based on company's comment. Valuation:19.4x ’25E core P/E, 7.1% FCF yields for 25.8% '25-28E EPS CAGR vs. EU Midcappharma sector (ex-Novo) 13.6x '25E core P/E, 6.8% FCF yields for 12.8% '25-28E EPS CAGR. Key potential catalysts:Clesrovimab ACIP meeting in the US (25-27 June); Gamifant sHLH/MASUS FDA decision (27 June); Altuvoct FREEDOM (Phase 3b) initial study data (2H25). Aspaveli P3 VALIANT 52-week data update showssustainedefficacy Takeaways from the call •VALIANT Study Design: °P3, randomized, placebo-controlled trial with 124 patients (adults and adolescents ≥12).°6-month double-blind phase followed by 6-month open-label extension.°Placebo group received standard of care + placebo, then switched to pegcetacoplan.°Primary endpoint: Log-transformed ratio of UPCR compared with baseline. •52-Week Results: °Patients treated with pegcetacoplan throughout showed durable proteinuria reductions,with a mean decrease in urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) of 67.2% (95% CI, –75.8 to–55.4). Those who switched from placebo to pegcetacoplan during the open label periodexperienced comparable benefit, with a 51.3% (95% CI, –62.1 to –37.5) reduction in UPCRby w