嘉能可：准备重新启动

Ready to reload The closing of the Bunge/Viterra deal comes at a fortunatetime as GLEN's current $1bn share buyback programmecompleted last Friday. This is a positive catalyst as the dealproceeds should allow GLEN management to launch anotherbuyback programme of at least $1bn ahead of H1 results. GLEN.L/GLEN LNOVERWEIGHTEuropean Metals & MiningNEUTRALPrice TargetGBp 408Price (13-Jun-25)GBp 292Potential Upside/Downside+39.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Bunge/Viterra deal should close on 2 July:On Friday, Bunge announced that it received therequired approval for the closing of the transaction from China's State Administration for MarketRegulation. As a result, all conditions relating to anti-trust and foreign direct investment lawshave been satisfied. Subject to remaining conditions being met, Bunge expects to complete thetransaction on 2 July 2025, just over 2 years since the deal was announced on 13 June 2023.Under the terms of the agreement, Glencore will receive $1bn in cash and 32.8m Bunge shares($2.67bn market value) for its ~50% stake in Viterra. European Metals & Mining Ian Rossouw, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 2620ian.rossouw@barclays.comBarclays, UK Amos Fletcher, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 2225amos.fletcher@barclays.comBarclays, UK Ready to launch another buyback:On Friday (13 June), Glencore completed its $1bn buybackprogramme that was announced at its FY24 results in February 2025 (as part of ~$2.2bn inshareholder returns). We estimate GLEN acquired 268m shares (~2.2% of outstanding shares) atan average price of 288p. The FY24 results' shareholder returns framework already incorporatedreceipt of the Viterra $1bn proceeds to enable the $1bn buyback just completed. Tom Zhang, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 1395tom.zhang1@barclays.comBarclays, UK Using YTD actual commodity prices and fx, we estimate pro-forma net debt (including $1bnproceeds from the Viterra deal and marketing leases) at 30 June 2025 of $10.2bn including~$1.1bn of non-RMI working capital release. Based on the $11bn net debt target (includingmarketing leases of ~$1bn), this implies ~$0.22bn excess cash is available for top-up returns inH2(afterpaying the H2 dividend of $0.6bn). However, Glencore management previously stated(at H1-24 conference call) the likely option to monetise some of the Bunge stock ahead of its12m lock-up to allow for additional buyback programmes. We believe management is likely touse this option to launch another buyback programme of at least $1bn ahead of the H1 resultson 6 August. Meet Mehta+91 (0)22 6175 1943meet.mehta@barclays.comBarclays, UK Our view:With near-term cash flow relatively constrained by low commodity prices (includingcoal prices), we see monetisation of the non-core asset portfolio (including Bunge shares postclosing of the Bunge/Viterra transaction) to boost shareholder returns as a positive catalyst. Weremain OW, given our positive medium-term outlook on the steelmaking coal market (albeitslightly delayed due to weaker China and ex-China steel markets), while we think thermal coal iswell supported at current levels for the foreseeable future. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 2.Completed: 15-Jun-25, 23:58 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 00:03 GMTRestricted - External Barclays | Glencore Analyst(s) Certification(s): We, Amos Fletcher, CFA and Ian Rossouw, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call