金融衍生品研究

Morning Insight:July 9, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Alumina:Last Wednesday, driven by sudden market sentiment surroundingthe“anti-involution”narrative, the AO futures market briefly brokethrough the 3000 mark. The highly elastic part of this price surge couldbe attributed to capital-driven speculative activity. Recently, spotalumina prices have remained stable, while deliverable inventoriesarerelatively low, and the near-month position-to-inventory ratio remainshigh—this has been the main driver behind the rally in the futuresmarket. According to spot market feedback, low inventory levels at the Xinjiangdelivery warehouse, combined with the rise in AO futures prices, haveopened up an arbitrage window for delivery on the exchange. This hasdiverted some supply away from aluminum smelters and tightened aluminaavailability for intermediaries. Under normal industry logic, considering that alumina has entered a newinventory accumulation cycle and overseas supplies are flowing into theChinese market, we lean toward the view that the AO futures valuationshould not be too high. Moreover, the“anti-involution”policy has notprovided concrete implementation guidelines, and the recent price spikeis more sentiment-driven than fundamentally justified. That said, there are signs of implicit production cuts at some northernfacilities, which means the actual net production resumption has notsignificantly translated into inventory accumulation. This factorrequires ongoing monitoring. In addition, importand export logistics should be closely watched for marginal shifts. For now, alumina is likelyto follow the current market trend with a strong bias, but confirmationof a turning point will require clearer signs of inventory buildup. Polysilicon:Policy-driven disruptions are intensifying, leading tonoticeable market volatility—caution is advised when holding positions.Yesterday, multiple polysilicon contracts hit their daily limit-up,primarily driven by a sharp rise in upstream factory quotations, whichsurged to the full cost range of 39,000–40,000 yuan/ton. This rally wasfueled by long-side capital speculating on anticipated price cappolicies. From a fundamental perspective, supply continues to recover as moreproduction resumes, contributing marginal increases, while demand remainsweak. The wafer segment is seeing further production cuts, and there aresigns of destocking efforts aimed at propping up prices in the shortterm. The overall structure of increasing supply and decreasing demandremains intact, and the industry continues to face pressure from highinventory levels. However, current market activity is more influenced bypolicy-related expectations, with fundamentals playing a relativelysmaller role in pricing decisions. There is a risk that once the sentiment fades, prices may revert tolevels more aligned with fundamentals. In the short term, the marketappears to be amplifying policy signals, resulting in a divergencebetween price movements and the underlying supply-demand balance. Assuch, investors are advised to remain cautious with their positions. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods atthe factory gate, went down 3.6 percent year on year in June, theNational Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, was up0.1 percent year on year in June, data from the National Bureau ofStatistics showed Wednesday. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's passenger car sector recorded a double-digit growth in retailsales in June as the country's policies to boost consumption continued totake effect, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on Tuesday.Last month, retail sales of passenger cars in China grew by 18.1 percentyear on year to exceed 2.08 million units, data from the CPCA shows.The association attributed the strong increase to the impact of thenational consumer goods trade-in program. The country reaffirmed its support for the program last month, ensuringcontinued funding to sustain the government subsidy payment throughout2025. The program, a key part of the country's broader strategy tostimulate domestic consumption, encourages consumers to replace outdatedproducts--such as home appliances and vehicles--with newer, moreefficient models. Last month, China produced 1.2 million new energy passenger vehicles,with retail sales exceeding 1.11 million units, representing year-on-yearincreases of 28.3 percent and 29.7 percent, respectively.In the first six months of the year, retail sales of passenger carsexceeded 10.9 million units, increasing 10.8 percent year on year,according to the CPCA