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Restricted - External EconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKGabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, USErcan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UKBrian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeCredit StrategyAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UKAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeFX & EM Macro StrategyAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, USMitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore EM Asia Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Emerging Europe, Middle East and AfricaOscillating between hope and despair. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Expectations for the resolution of geopolitical conflicts have not been fruitful so far. The EEMEAregion is mired in new (geo)political risks, limiting scope for maneuvres on the policy front.EEMEA Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100Latin AmericaThe art of fine tuning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139Fiscal worries and the varyingeffectsof Trump's policies have dominated the narrative in thepast few months. Although these issues persist, we have seen ashiftin market focus towardhow central banks are fine-tuning the end of their current policy cycles.LatAm Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Emerging MarketsGlobal forecasts and financial indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196EM sovereign and corporate creditSummary of credit ratings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2022 1For full disclosures on each covered sovereign issuer, please refer to http://publicresearch.barcap.com. For fulldetails of trade ideas included in this section, as well as important disclosures, please refer to the regional outlooksections of this report.EM Economic & Strategy OutlookEyes wide openEM’s exposure to UStariffs,geopolitics andsofterglobalgrowth is, in our view,offsetby the commodity price boost forexporters and a renewed interest in the asset class as a wayto diversify out of the US. We expect the outlook for EM localand credit to remain robust and carry to perform.Local:Markets are waiting for Trump's policies to show up in the data. EM FX carry shouldcontinue to outperform in an environment where US growth slows gradually, as relevantcurrencies also feature stronger growth momentum currently. Central banks are largely in thefine-tuning phase of the cycle, and are likely to go slow, supporting currencies. We still seeroom for selective front-end receivers where terminals are far above neutral (Mexico,Colombia, and Hungary). Moreover, we think there is room for back-ends to compress versusthe US, as currencies have been resilient and relative risks are converging. Finally, marketsare pricing a quick resolution in the Middle East, but fiscal risks associated with prolongedmilitary conflicts, including Russia/Ukraine, seem undervalued (we see value in payingPoland versus Czech according to these metrics).Credit1:A robust technical backdrop and tailwinds from higher commodity price shouldsupport select frontier HY sovereigns. Our OWs in this space include Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria,Suriname, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. We also upgrade Kenya to MW (from UW) and South Africato OW (from MW), but downgrade Turkiye sovereign credit to MW (from OW) and Cote d'Ivoireto UW (from MW) in the heavily positioned BB segment. Given the steepening of most spreadand yield curves, especially in the 5-10y sector, we see 10y bonds as the 'sweet spot' in anumber of these names. At current spreads, we see the balance of risks as tilted to thedownside for KSA sovereign credit, which we downgrade to UW (from MW); we recommendbuying 5y KSA CDS vs the CDX EM IG index. We maintain UW ratings on fallen angelcandidates Romania and Panama. In EM corporates, we see value in Indonesia HY and IndiaHY, while we recommend focusing on issuer selection in EEMEA/LatAm, where – despiteoutperformance in June – some cyclical credits stillofferattractive risk-reward relative todefensives, in our view.Economic outlook:Difficult,but not all bad for EMCrosswinds of trade fragmentation and asofterUSDEM economies are caught in the crosswinds of the new US administration's disruptive tradepolicies and the weakening of the USD. A more fragmented global economy with highertariffsand trade barriers is in principle not good news for (mostly small) open economies. The25 June 2025 EconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKGabriel