紧平衡结构延续，铜价趋于上行

投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明核心观点及策略要点展提供坚实支撑。持在3.4%。为9500-10500美元/吨。 2/30目录一、2025年上半年行情回顾............................................5二、宏观经济分析.....................................................71、全球贸易局势缓和，美国经济面临滞涨风险........................................................72、美联储降息预期抬升，欧央行或放缓降息步伐.....................................................83、做大做强内循环体系，央行货币政策保持适度宽松.............................................9三、铜矿供应分析....................................................101、全球精矿紧缺程度超预期，中资企业积极开拓铜矿资源...................................102、预计2025年全球铜精矿增速降至1.7%................................................................12四、精铜供应分析....................................................151、国内精铜产量下半年将减速，全年同比增速或降至4.5%..................................152、2025年海外精铜产量释放十分缓慢......................................................................163、下半年精铜进口量将低位运行，铜已成为大国博弈的战略资源.......................174、国内废铜供应总体平稳，东南亚或填补美废铜进口缺口...................................195、上半年LME库存骤降逾7成，紧平衡现实令全球库存重心下移.......................20五、精铜需求分析....................................................221、今年电网投资规模有望超8000亿，新型特高压电网系统提速升级.................222、房地产市场筑底企稳，楼市调控政策持续加码...................................................223、“两新”政策带动空调产销提速...........................................................................234、新能源汽车产销维持高增长，自主品牌已覆盖海外市场...................................235、光伏去产能将落到实处，风电抢装过后将回归低增速.......................................246、传统行业托底需求基本盘，新兴产业存在去产能和增速放缓隐忧...................25六、2025年下半年行情展望............................................28 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 3/30图表目录图表1铜期货价格走势..................................................................................................................5图表2上海现货铜升贴水走势......................................................................................................6图表3发达国家GDP增速............................................................................................................9图表4欧美制造业PMI指数.........................................................................................................9图表5中国GDP增速....................................................................................................................9图表6中国PMI指数.....................................................................................................................9图表7全球主流矿企2023年第三季度产量情况（万吨）......................................................11图表8 2023-2024年全球主要铜矿项目增量跟踪(万吨)........................................................12图表92024-2025国内精炼新扩建项目预估（万吨）...............................................................13图表102024-2025海外精炼新扩建项目预估（万吨）.............................................................15图表11ICSG全球精炼铜供需平衡走势.....................................................................................15图表12ICSG全球精炼铜消费变化.............................................................................................15图表13中国铜精矿现货TC走势................................................................................................15图表14中国进口铜精矿年度长单TC走势...............................................................................15图表15中国铜材产量及增速变化..............................................................................................15图表16中国未锻造铜及铜材进口量及增速变化......................................................................16图表17中国精炼铜产量变化......................................................................................................16图表18中国精炼铜消费量变化..................................................................................................16图表19中国精炼铜进口量及增速变化......................................................................................16图表20中国精炼铜出口量及增速变化......................................................................................17图表21中国废铜进口单月变化..................................................................................................17图表22中国废铜进口累计变化..................................................................................................18图表23全球显现库存变化情况..................................................................................................18图表24SHFE和保税区库存走势................................................................................................21图表25电网投资完成额..............................................................................................................21图表26房地产开工施工竣工增速..............................................................................................22图表27空调产量..........................................................................................................................22图表28家用空调库存..................................................................................................................22 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明4/30图表29汽车销量............