2025年固收中期策略：利率｜动态还是静态，票息还是资本利得？

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com联系人许帆xufan@ctsec.com相关报告1.《利率|下半年政府债净融资或同比显著减少》2025-06-252.《海外|下一任美联储主席可能花落谁家？》2025-06-253.《 信 用|中 小 银 行 经营 风 险 怎 么看？》2025-06-24 核心观点及阶段性的调节久期和杠杆、兑现浮盈等行为。半年或仍有降息降准空间，以及重启国债买入等。❖风险提示： 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1动态与静态、资本利得与票息，哪个更重要？...................................................................................42今年机构行为有哪些变化？...................................................................................................................63中美脱钩下，基本面的两个预期差.......................................................................................................94底线思维下，政策知多少？.................................................................................................................135资产荒可能重新深化.............................................................................................................................156资金利率震荡区间下移.........................................................................................................................177买卖国债与否，重要吗？.....................................................................................................................198空间与曲线形态怎么看？.....................................................................................................................209风险提示.................................................................................................................................................22图1. 10年国债和DR001在三个场景下的表现...........................................................................................5图2.中长债基2024年累计收益率...............................................................................................................6图3.中长债基2025年累计收益率...............................................................................................................6图4.农商行二级买入行为与利率变化.........................................................................................................7图5.农商行净买入7y以上利率债季节性...................................................................................................7图6.除农商行外内资行净买入7y以上利率债季节性...............................................................................7图7.保险净买入7y以上利率债季节性.......................................................................................................7图8.除农商行外内资行净买入7y以上利率债与CD................................................................................7图9.除农商行外内资行净买入7y以上利率债与融出...............................................................................7图10. 7Y以上利率债二级交易季节性（券商）..........................................................................................8图11. 7Y以上利率债二级交易季节性（基金）..........................................................................................8图12.全口径信用债二级交易季节性（基金）...........................................................................................8图13.全口径信用债二级交易季节性（券商）...........................................................................................8图14.全口径信用债二级交易季节性（理财）...........................................................................................9图15.全口径信用债二级交易季节性（其他产品类）...............................................................................9图16.芬太尼以来10年国债收益率表现...................................................................................................10图17.中国至美国集装箱船出发数量.........................................................................................................10图18.中国至美国集装箱运输预订量.........................................................................................................10内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图19. 1Q2025及4月我国对越南主要中间品出口增速............................................................................11图20. 1-4月我国对新加坡主要中间品、资本品出口增速.......................................................................11图21.20城新房成交面积............................................................................................................................11图22.网约车订单数与沪深300指数.........................................................................................................11图23.CPI同比及预测 ..................................................................................................................................12图24.PPI同比及预测 ..................................................................................................................................12图25.实际GDP增速和名义GDP增速....................................................................................................13图26.各地关于新型政策性金融工具的投向安排.....................................................................................13图27.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................14图28.新增地方债发行进度.........................................................................................................................14图29. 10年国债收益率、OMO利率和名义GDP增速........................................................