铅半年报：铅市供需双增 旺季价显动能

投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略的关键变量。 2/19目录一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅精矿供应缓慢恢复.................................................42.1.2铅精矿加工费维持低迷，银精矿进口需求有增无减..........................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1全球精炼铅供应增速平缓................................................72.2.2电解铅生产稳定，下半年关注新增项目落地................................82.2.3利润及原料不足抑制生产，下半年干扰率难言降温..........................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................112.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................112.3.2铅蓄电池库存偏高，关注三季度消费旺季兑现情况.........................123.2 .1沪伦比价不利于铅锭及电池出口，进口补充原料配比.......................132.3.2 .2政策引导，铅蓄电池消费前景边际改善.................................142.4海外库存高企，国内库存保持中性.........................................16三、总结与后市展望........................................................17 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 3/19图表目录图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024-2025年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）...................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................6图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................6图表5 2024-2025年国内主要铅矿产量变化（万吨）...........................................................6图表6内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................7图表7铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................7图表8铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表9银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表10 2024-2025年海外部分炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）.................................................8图表11全球精炼铅月度产量..................................................................................................8图表12电解铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表13原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................9图表14 2024-2025年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.........................................................9图表15再生精铅产量情况....................................................................................................10图表16再生铅企业开工率....................................................................................................10图表17废电池价格易涨难跌................................................................................................10图表18再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................10图表19 2024-2025年国内再生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.......................................................11图表20全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................12图表21全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................12图表22美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................12图表23欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................12图表24铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................13图表25铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................13图表26精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................14图表27精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................14图表28精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................14图表29精炼铅进口盈亏情况................................................................................................14图表30铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................16图表31汽车产量情况............................................................................................................16图表32汽车保有量................................................................................................................16图表33电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................16图表34 LME库存先减后增............................................................