影响高等教育发展的宏观趋势：高校如何适应时代变革，在21世纪创造价值

How colleges and universities can adaptto create value in the 21st century David Richardson, TIAA Institute Contents Introduction3 A dramatic drop in college enrollment5More classroom seats than students8Families feel the pain of rising prices8A drop in government funding for higher education11Elusive productivity gains12An uncertain role for technology13 Part 2: Reaffirming the value of higher education14 Expanded job opportunities15Higher lifelong earnings16Benefits to the community18Better health, happiness and more18 Part 3: Closing the perception gap on the cost of college19 Most pay less than sticker price20Student debt is not one-dimensional21 Part 4: The road forward24 Support students through graduation25Demystify college costs25Embrace online education25Adapt to a changing labor market25Provide lifelong learning26 Introduction For generations of Americans, higher education has stood as a beacon of personal achievementand a clear path to a better lifeThe role of colleges and universities in delivering on that promisehas long been regarded as self-evidentIn 1973, Derek CBok, barely two years into his tenureas president of Harvard University, declared with confidence that the fundamental purpose of acollege education “scarcely requires justification”1 A half-century later, evidence suggests the value of a college degree, and the reasons for pursuing one, are asimportant as everYet a combination of forces is putting this long-term perspective to the testWhile collegesand universities continue to attract millions of students each year and many elite institutions are flooded withapplications, the higher education system overall is grappling with challenges ranging from rising costs and shiftingdemographics to technological change and eroding public support If the challenges are great, so is the opportunityHigher education can and should remain a vital force in shapingindividual lives, leveling the field of opportunity for all Americans and preparing new generations to propel societyforwardThis report examines several macro-trends creating headwinds for higher education today, as well assome popular misperceptions that, left unanswered, may place the future viability of many institutions at riskWeconclude with some ideas on how individual colleges and universities, and the higher education community as awhole, can adapt to remain a critical component of the American economy through the 21st century Part 1: Facing the headwinds While institutions have always encountered operating challenges and uncertainties, a confluenceof pressures are creating unique challenges compared to prior yearsAs a sector, higher educationtoday must navigate a number of meaningful headwinds to achieve long-term objectives A dramatic drop in college enrollment A troubling recent development for colleges and universities is the decline in college enrollment among recent highschool graduatesAfter rising from 45% in 1960 to 70% in 2009, the enrollment rate slipped below 62% in 2023The most dramatic drop was among men, with fewer than 55% enrolling in 2021—their lowest rate since the early1980sThe enrollment rate for men rebounded in 2023 to nearly 58%Still, by contrast, 65% of women graduatesenrolled that year2 While enrollment rates broken down by race and ethnicity reveals wide differences—including significantly higherenrollment by recent Asian high school graduates—across all groups, the percentages of students entering college aresubstantially below their peaks By race/ethnicity Total enrollment has declined at both public and privateinstitutions, dropping from a high of more than 18 millionin 2010 to a little more than 166 million by 20233Whilepublic postsecondary school enrollment outnumbers privatepostsecondary school enrollment by about three to one, thetrajectories for both have roughly paralleled one anotherEnrollment growth for public and private colleges anduniversities stalled out around 2010, leading to a long-termdrop despite occasional annual increases TOTAL COLLEGE ENROLLMENT2010:18 million2023:16.6 million Total enrollment Enrollment growth What’s behind the decline in enrollment? One obvious causeof falling enrollment is that people are having fewer childrenWhile the challenges are greater in Europe and parts of Asia,the USbirth rate has declined dramatically, from nearly24 births per 1,000 people in 1950 to just 106 in 2024, according to United Nations world population projectionsDuring the same period, the USfertility rate (the averagenumber of babies women have during childbearing years)plummeted from 31 babies in 1950 to 16 in 20244 USfertility rate noted, each closure means a community loses a cherishedinstitution and its jobs, and students lose their academichomes, perhaps never to complete their degrees7At greatestrisk are hundreds of small liberal arts colleges and regionaluniversities trying to compete with major universities thathave sizable endowments and national or interna