2025年数字生态状况报告

In 2024, we talked about the macro landscape continuing to be a rollercoaster and how such uncertaintyhampered M&A activity. We talked about AI becoming a utility, like a railroad. We mentioned governmentsincreasing efforts to oversee Big Tech within both the US and Europe. We noted that the performance ofpublic company Ad Tech revenue growth was improving substantially. Lastly, we laid out a framework tocontextualize the market: “Survive, Revive, Thrive”-survive the depths of 2023, return to growth in 2024, andthen get set to Thrive in 2025. Well, we got a few things right. The macro environment did improve, interest rates came down, inflation came down, and the stock marketresponded positively in 2024. AI became absolute table stakes for marketers. Best of luck to those 6% of marketers with their next job. Revenue growth continued to be strong quarter after quarter and so far, with the publicly announced earningsin Q1 of 2025, growth continues to look healthy. As predicted, M&A activity rose substantially with numerous transactions across Ad Tech and MarTech. The government continues its crackdown, securing case victories against Google and Apple, and appearsdeeply engaged in pursuing further wins against Big Tech. Europe has several antitrust initiatives as well. And of course, the most consequential case for this ecosystem is the Ad Tech lawsuit against Google. Wewould argue that every potential constituency benefits if Google is ultimately required to divest what isarguably its lowest-growth, lowest-margin, and most troublesome business, including Google. We’re seeing new entrants ramping up. Some companies are accelerating their efforts through acquisitions orby expanding their initiatives in advertising, while others are well-positioned to move into the space. Notably,OpenAI just hiredFidjiSimo, formerly of Instacart and Facebook. Given her deep advertising experience, thatmove seems particularly telling. So, the Thrive was happening. Ad Tech, MarTech, and the Nasdaq were all up substantially until February. Theannounced US tariffs on Canada and Mexico and then all countries added significant uncertainty to themarkets, erasing a year of public market gains. We would note that the markets have returned significantlyover the past several weeks leading up to DMS. Let’s think about what the impact of a draconian tariff regime might be. Yes, there’s the shock and awe of the marketreaction, but perhaps the biggest concern is the hit to business confidence. We are encouraged by the recent tariffdeals, but if those don’t further materialize, substantial tariffs could disrupt the supply chain, which may ultimatelyimpact advertising spend. On the positive side, all the major trends ‒ AI, CTV, commerce media, and mediafragmentation ‒ remain firmly in play. And historically, major negative disruptions, have often accelerated them. Every year as we prepare our State ofDigitalwe reflect on the most important trends impacting theecosystem. Often these end up being driven by specific channels (open web, CTV, Commerce Media, etc.),with discrete trends driving each.This year, we observed that in fact there are three core and intertwined forces that are driving the entireindustry forward, regardless of channel: the Proliferation of AI, the Shift to Outcomes, and Evolving MediaConsumption. Evaluating the potential applications of AI to advertising, we tend to think of them within a hierarchy. At thebase-level you see daily tasks and functions, such as workflow, audience data, measurement, and mediabuying. One could describe AI as software that optimizes theseexistingtasks primarily for efficiency. The nextlayer involves AI software designed to enhance both efficiency and effectiveness across content, ad creatives,and communication. Next up is a layer which represents a new consumer interface that has the potential tocompletely reconstruct search and internet navigation. Lastly, is the unknown unknowns. What are powerful AIsolutions that we haven't quite thought of yet? With respect to the LLMs, the major platforms have largely been subscription-based business models. Webelieve it's inevitable that they will lean into advertising and commerce due to their massive user engagement,rich intent signals, and high personalization potential. These companies raised hundreds of billions of dollarsand will need to demonstrate that they can monetize all that time and attention. We're seeing early moversand believe next year we'll be talking about the substantial initiatives of these platforms as they expand intothese new revenue streams. As it relates to productization of AI in Ad Tech, we have seen these tend to manifest in two forms:CoPilots(humans completing tasks with the assistance of AI) and Agents (humans delegating tasks to AI). One of the biggest opportunities in applying AI to any sector is bringing efficiencies to the workflow / humanservices element and advertising is certainly no exception. Advertising,