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EVC提交给：加强综合系统计划以支持能源转型改进ISP ERC0396中对需求侧因素的考虑

信息技术2024-07-19电动汽车委员会d***

AI智能总结

The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) supports the rule change request ERC0396 aimed at improving the consideration of demand-side factors in the Integrated System Plan (ISP), particularly regarding electrification assumptions and the uptake of CERs and distributed resources. The EVC strongly agrees with the statement that assumptions about electrification and consumer behavior regarding EV charging and V2G should be improved.

The EVC argues that AEMO needs to enhance the accuracy of EV forecasting, both in terms of EV numbers and consumer charging behavior. The current AEMO forecasts significantly misalign with government policies and market realities, overestimating BEVs and underestimating Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). EV charging behavior assumptions also deviate from real-world consumer behavior, with a bias towards peak-time charging and minimal V2G impact.

The proposed solution from the AEMC, which relies on DNSPs providing better data, is deemed insufficient. The EVC suggests that AEMO should engage with the transport sector and other stakeholders to gather more accurate data. Retaining independent consultants with EV expertise is recommended as a short-term solution, while hiring transport sector personnel into AEMO's forecasting team is proposed for the long term.

Regarding network capacity data, the EVC emphasizes the need for more granular data, similar to Essential Energy's public capacity map. This data would support efficient public charging infrastructure deployment and reduce the risk of over-investing in energy networks.

Key data points include:

AEMO's forecast expects 50% of new light vehicle sales in the NEM to be BEVs in 2026 and 85% in 2030, while government targets aim for 50% BEV and PHEV sales by 2030.
AEMO forecasts approximately 8,000 PHEVs sold in the NEM from 2024 to 2030, whereas about 8,000 PHEVs have already been sold in the first half of 2024.
AEMO's ISP and ESOO models overestimate peak-time EV charging and lead to excessive network investment proposals by DNSPs.

The EVC concludes that improving EV forecasting and making granular network capacity data publicly available would significantly benefit the EV transition, reduce network costs, and support the National Energy Outlook (NEO) objectives. The EVC is willing to engage with market bodies to identify experts and highlight the value of granular data for public EV charging deployment.

EVC提交给：加强综合系统计划以支持能源转型改进ISP ERC0396中对需求侧因素的考虑

EVCSubmission to: Enhancing the integrated system plan to support the energy transitionImproving consideration of demand-side factors in the ISPERC0396 With reference to: https://www.aemc.gov.au/rule-changes/improving-consideration-demand-side-factors-isp Prepared by: Ross De Rango, Head ofEnergy andInfrastructure Premable: The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) is the national body representing the electric vehicleindustry in Australia. As the market is emerging in Australia, our work is particularly aimed atincreasing certainty forinvestment through policy, knowledge sharing and education. Theaccelerated uptake of electric vehicles enables a more sustainable and prosperous future. This submission focusses specifically on ERC0396, Improving consideration of demand-sidefactors in the ISP. The EVC is broadly supportive of theother rule change requestsmade that are bundled withthis one, but is not commenting specifically to them at this time. Executive summary: The EVC supports the intent of the rule change request from Minister Bowen: https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-06/erc0396_0.pdf In particulartheEVC strongly agrees with this statement: “That assumptions about electrification, and the uptake and orchestration of CER anddistributed resources should be improved” It is the view of the EVC thatAEMO definitely needs to improve the accuracy ofassumptionsrelating toEV forecasting, both with respect to EV numbers, and with respect to consumerbehaviourrelating to EV charging and discharging (V2G).The EVC has provideddetailedfeedback of this nature multiple times: https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/?s=aemo The proposedsolutionfrom the AEMCis well intentionedand in keeping with the intent ofMinister Bowen’s request, but, in the EVC’s view,not likely to deliver the desired result,primarily becausethe proposed solutionassumes that the DNSPs have the best data availableto aid AEMO in doing a better job of forecasting the impact of EVs, when in fact they do not. To improve EV forecasting, AEMO will need to seek out data sources from stakeholders otherthan DNSPs, and then use that data well.In the EVC’s view, the clearest short term pathwayto improvementwillbethe retention of independent consultants with transport sector(andspecifically EV sector)expertise.Longer term,to support the convergence of the transportsector and the electricity sector,AEMO shouldprobablyhirepersonnel into their forecastingteamfrom the transport sector. Additionally, consideration is given to the availability of more granular data relating to networkcapacity.The EVC is of the view that whether or not AEMO needs this datato improveforecasting, the EV industry definitely needs it to support the efficient deployment of publiccharging infrastructure, on which the transition to EVs (and hence achievement of the NEO)depend.So, the proposed solution should lead towards this data being publicly available,rather than just available to AEMO. Detailed responses to questions: 6(a): Yes. Seediscussion below relating to point 3.1.1 6(b): Yes. See discussion below relating to point 3.1.2. With respect to this question, the issue is that many DNSPs are notpublishingdata at asufficiently granular level to support the transition, because they are not required to. This has been coveredmany times in a variety of forums, most recently here: https://www.aer.gov.au/industry/registers/resources/reviews/network-visibility https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/submissions/evc-response-to-esb-aer-benefits-of-increased-visibility-of-networks-consultation-paper/ If DNSPs madesufficiently granular estimates of network capacity publicly available (per theexcellent example provided by Essential Energy), AEMO could use that data, as could all ofthe businesses seeking toaccelerateand lower the cost of deployment of publicEVcharginginfrastructure. AEMO forecasts EV uptake andbehaviour in significant detail, due to the forward outlook ofhow significant EV-related energy use will be over the forward period of the ISP. The forecasting of EV uptake by AEMO has been badly misaligned with government policy atstate and federal level forseveralyears. It remainsbadly misaligned withgovernment policy,and also withthe objective reality of the vehicle market,in the most recent forecastingassumptions update in 2024. For example, the current assumptions workbook expects that approximately 50% of new lightvehicle salesin the NEMwill be BEV in 2026, and 85% BEV in 2030.Government targetsand policies are aimed at 50%ofnewlightvehicle sales being a combination of BEV andPHEV in 2030. While over-forecasting BEVs, AEMO significantly under-forecasts PHEVs. AEMO’s forecastfor the period 2024-2030 assumes approximately 8000 PHEVs sold in total in the NEMoverthat period.Australians haveactuallypurchasedabout 8000 PHEVs in the first half of 2024,and PHEV sales are growing. Assumptions around EV charging behaviour are similarly out of step with real world cons

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