The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) supports the rule change request ERC0396 aimed at improving the consideration of demand-side factors in the Integrated System Plan (ISP), particularly regarding electrification assumptions and the uptake of CERs and distributed resources. The EVC strongly agrees with the statement that assumptions about electrification and consumer behavior regarding EV charging and V2G should be improved.
The EVC argues that AEMO needs to enhance the accuracy of EV forecasting, both in terms of EV numbers and consumer charging behavior. The current AEMO forecasts significantly misalign with government policies and market realities, overestimating BEVs and underestimating Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). EV charging behavior assumptions also deviate from real-world consumer behavior, with a bias towards peak-time charging and minimal V2G impact.
The proposed solution from the AEMC, which relies on DNSPs providing better data, is deemed insufficient. The EVC suggests that AEMO should engage with the transport sector and other stakeholders to gather more accurate data. Retaining independent consultants with EV expertise is recommended as a short-term solution, while hiring transport sector personnel into AEMO's forecasting team is proposed for the long term.
Regarding network capacity data, the EVC emphasizes the need for more granular data, similar to Essential Energy's public capacity map. This data would support efficient public charging infrastructure deployment and reduce the risk of over-investing in energy networks.
Key data points include:
- AEMO's forecast expects 50% of new light vehicle sales in the NEM to be BEVs in 2026 and 85% in 2030, while government targets aim for 50% BEV and PHEV sales by 2030.
- AEMO forecasts approximately 8,000 PHEVs sold in the NEM from 2024 to 2030, whereas about 8,000 PHEVs have already been sold in the first half of 2024.
- AEMO's ISP and ESOO models overestimate peak-time EV charging and lead to excessive network investment proposals by DNSPs.
The EVC concludes that improving EV forecasting and making granular network capacity data publicly available would significantly benefit the EV transition, reduce network costs, and support the National Energy Outlook (NEO) objectives. The EVC is willing to engage with market bodies to identify experts and highlight the value of granular data for public EV charging deployment.
