基于期货技术分析重点品种半年度风险管理指引

吴奇翀产业咨询高级分析师从业资格号：F03103978投资咨询号：Z0019617Tel：862163325888Email：qichong.wu@orientfutures.com联系人宋静产业咨询分析师从业资格号：F03130547Tel：862163325888Email:jing.song@orientfutures.com 1 目录1、有色板块上半年技术结构特征回顾与展望........................................................................................................................31.1、1H25有色板块技术评级回顾.....................................................................................................................................61.2、有色重点品种铜的详细回顾....................................................................................................................................101.3、有色板块风险管理指引.............................................................................................................................................152、黑色板块上半年技术结构特征回顾与展望......................................................................................................................162.1、1H25黑色板块技术评级回顾...................................................................................................................................162.2、黑色重点品种螺纹钢的详细回顾............................................................................................................................192.3、黑色板块风险管理指引.............................................................................................................................................243、农产品板块上半年技术结构特征回顾与展望..................................................................................................................253.1、1H25农产品板块技术评级回顾..............................................................................................................................253.2、农产品重点品种豆粕的详细回顾............................................................................................................................303.3、农产品板块风险管理指引.........................................................................................................................................344、能化板块上半年技术结构特征回顾与展望......................................................................................................................354.1、1H25能化板块技术评级回顾...................................................................................................................................354.2、能化重点品种PTA的详细回顾..............................................................................................................................404.3、能化板块风险管理指引.............................................................................................................................................445、全品种斐波那契枢轴测算.....................................................................................................................................................456、风险提示...................................................................................................................................................................................48 期货研究报告2 图表目录图表1：1H25沪铜技术指标评级与收盘价............................................................................................................................6图表2：1H25沪铜技术评级与收益率....................................................................................................................................6图表3：1H25沪铝技术指标评级与收盘价............................................................................................................................7图表4：1H25沪铝技术评级与收益率....................................................................................................................................7图表5：1H25沪锌技术指标评级与收盘价............................................................................................................................7图表6：1H25沪锌技术评级与收益率....................................................................................................................................7图表7：1H25沪铅技术指标评级与收盘价............................................................................................................................8图表8：1H25沪铅技术评级与收益率....................................................................................................................................8图表9：1H25多晶硅技术指标评级与收盘价.......................................................................................................................8图表10：1H25多晶硅技术评级与收益率..............................................................................................................................8图表11：1H25碳酸锂技术指标评级与收盘价.....................................................................................................................8图表12：1H25碳酸锂技术评级与收益率..............................................................................................................................8图表13：有色板块主连斐波那契枢轴测算（6月27日更新）........................................................................................9图表14：沪铜主力连续合约成交量/持仓量和收盘价......................................................................................................10图表15：沪铜主连MACD（12，26，9）日频价格趋势............................................................