6月HDT销售额同比增长29%，超出预期

HDT sales +29% YoY in Jun,better thanexpectation According to the preliminary data released by Cvworld,HDTwholesale volume(domestic +export) surged 29% YoY to 92k units in Jun,driven by both dieseland new-energy HDTs,which is above our expectation.We believe theunderlyingdriver for the strong growth was the implementation of truckreplacement subsidies launched in Mar (for details, please find our publication“New subsidies on truck replacement cover NES IV and natural gas trucks; +veto Weichai” [link]).The strong data point reaffirms our positive stance on HDTsector this year. We maintain our full-year HDT sales growth estimate of 10%.Webelieve bothWeichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY)andSinotruk(3808HK, HOLD)will benefit from the favourable sector trend in 2H25E. China Capital Goods Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Recent recovery ofHDT salesvolumelikely driven bypolicy.The salesvolumegrowth in Jun represented growth for three consecutive months(7%/14%/29% in Apr-Jun), following a 3% YoY decline in 1Q25.We believethe improvement in 2Q was driven by the replacement subsidies that coverNES IV HDTs(which account for~30% of the totalfleet size based onestimates).In 1H25, HDT sales volume grew ~6% YoY to 533k units.Webelievethe sector ison a good track to reach our full-year estimates of 10%YoY growth. Related reports:Capital Goods-Excavator demand slowed down in May; still positive onreplacement cycle–10 Jun 2025 (link) SANYI (631 HK, BUY)–Early stage ofearnings recovery + attractive valuationoffer good entry point–6 Jun 2025 (link) SANYI(631HK,BUY)–1Q25net profitsurged 23% YoY, holding up better-than-feared–30May 2025 (link) Capital Goods–Stilla mixed picture fornon-earth-moving machinery sales in Apr–20 May 2025 (link) Capital Goods–Solid growth of earth-moving machinery sales in Apr;Expectmomentum to continue in May–12 May2025 (link) Capital Goods sector–Major globalplayers’ forecast about tariff impact–7May 2025 (link) Capital Goods sector–1Q25 earnings:SANY Heavy beat; Zoomlion & Weichaislightly below expectation–30 Apr 2025(link) Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, HOLD)–2024 earnings way below expectations;outlook remains challenging–21 Apr2025 (link) Capital Goods–Strong domestic salesof earth-moving machinery in Mar–8Apr 2025 (link) Sinotruk (3808 HK,HOLD)–Staycautious on exports–31 Mar 2025 (link) Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH,BUY)–Strong engine margin expansionin 2024; 55% dividend payout ratio arecord high–28 Mar 2025 (link) Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, BUY)–2024 results below expectation; Stillpositive on the structural overseasgrowth trend–26 Mar 2025 (link) Source:Cvworld,Wind,CMBIGMNote: Domestic sales +exports Source:Cvworld, Wind, CMBIGM estimates Source:Cvworld, Wind, CMBIGM estimatesNote: China’s domestic sales + exports Source:Wind,CMBIGMestimates Source:Wind,Cvworld,CMBIGM Source:Wind,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates Source:CVworld,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or inpart, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY HOLDSELLNOT RATED : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited OUTPERFORMMARKET-PERFORMUNDERPERFORM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important