瑞银-BIS专家访谈

administration is not actively enforcing the AI Diffusion rule and our expertbelieves the Trump administration is instead likely to replace it with bilateral,country-to-country agreements. We think part of the reason here could be toaccommodate the recently announced AI infrastructure deals with UAE andSaudi Arabia - HUMAIN being the clearest example. With that said, our expertwas cautious in labeling the announcements as "deals", as he clarified that atthis stage, these should more accurately be described as frameworks - or evenjust statements of intent. ˜A complete ban of US SPE into China improbable; Semi materials amore viable choke point.When prompted about the potential for an across-the-board ban on shipping US SPE tools into China, our expert noted that thiswould be a "heavy lift" because it goes well beyond current national-securityjustifications and would require allies (e.g., Japan/Netherlands) to buy in.Instead, our expert believes a more realistic path that the Trump administrationcould pursue would be a modest expansion of the October 7 controls tocapture additional legacy tools (e.g., 40-65 nm etch/dep/cleans) - but again, ascenario that we still find hard to believe. Probably more likely would be abroadening of export controls on semi materials in our view - which accordingto our expert could effectively be an additional and viable choke point onChina. While materials were admittedly a "lower priority item" vs SPE on theprior administration's agenda, the recent involvement of Huawei in semimaterials could have revived the current administration's attention on thesegment. Read Across The call reinforced our view that headline risks from Section 232 investigation remainelevated, even if some measures eventually get negotiated down by the Trumpadministration in exchange for other trade items. As it relates to NVDA, we believe thecompany could be the primary beneficiary of easing of export controls on China - giventhe precedent already set by the administration on EDA - and especially if suchconcessions are packaged into a larger US-China trade agreement. Conversely, thesubstance of the AI infrastructure headlines between the US and UAE/Saudi Arabiacould come into question as our expert more accurately described these as frameworks -or even just statements of intent - with supply commitments far from being in place atthis point in time. Valuation Method and Risk Statement We use various valuation techniques such as P/E, EV/FCF for valuing the companies in thisreport. Risk factors include but are not limited to macroeconomic factors such as a downturnin the economy, a disruption of international trade, technological disruption due to newinventions, or business model innovation whereby structural changes in the industry alter thefuture course of unit sales, ASPs, and revenues. Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates,including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS". For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product;historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms andconditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwiseindicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterlyreports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not areliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed toconduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principalin the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 30 June2025 03:57 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts wherethose department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide informationreasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/or recommendations.Quantitative Research Review:UBS Global Research publishes aquantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short termfactors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views con