每日财政展望

27 June 2025 Highlights Global:Market sentiment remained broadly supported overnight, with nomajor risk events on the horizon. Expectations for Fed rate cuts continued torise, further bolstering sentiment. Fed funds futures now price in a 22%probability of a 25bps cut at the next meeting, following dovish signals fromseveral Fed officials and media reports suggesting President Trump’s potentialpick for a new Fed Chair. That said, most current FOMC members continue tofavor a cautious approach. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision MichaelBarr statedthat “monetary policy is well positioned to allow us to wait and see howeconomic conditions unfold.” Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted shewould prefer more than one additional month of data before making adecision in July, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said model-based projections suggest rate adjustments could begin in the fall. ChicagoFed President Austan Goolsbee added that it is important to ensure inflationis sustainably under control before easing. On the data front, initial jobless claims declined by 10,000 in the latest week.However, continuing claims rose by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.974million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a gradual softeningin labor market conditions and raising the likelihood of a marginal increase inthe June unemployment rate. Separately, the US 1Q25 GDP was reviseddownward to an annualized contraction of 0.5% from a prior estimate of-0.2%,driven primarily by a sharp revision to consumer spending.Nevertheless, high-frequency data continues to point to a rebound in growthabove 3% in 2Q25, supported by a reversal in import activity. On the fiscal front, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly urgedHouse Republicans to remove the proposed retaliatory tax under Section 899targeting foreign investors from the "One Big Beautiful Bill." The marketimpact remains uncertain as negotiations with the Senate are still ongoing andthe final form of the legislation is yet to be determined. Market Watch:Looking ahead, with limited event risk today, attention willturn to U.S. hard data releases, including personal income and spending, PCEprice index, and the final reading of the June University of Michigan consumersentiment survey. Major Markets HK:Merchandise exports and imports expanded by faster paces of 15.5% YoYand 18.9% YoY respectively in May, against the lower base a year ago. However,in sequential terms, exports edged down by 0.1% MoM, as decline in exports toMainland and US more than offset the increase in exports to other major Asianmarkets. During the period, trade balance deficit widened to HKD27.3 billion,from that of HKD16.0 billion in April. We expect to see revivalofexport front-loading flows in periods ahead, amid US-China trade truce.Separately, housingmarket is showing widening signs of stabilization, on the back of increased end-user demand and narrowing buy-rent gap. Housing prices flatlined in May, whilerents extended the recent rally. The residential property rental index rosefurther by 0.7% MoM in May (0.4% MoM in April), enlarging the year-to-dategain to 1.4%. ID:Online marketplaces will be required to withhold income tax from sellerswith annual turnover above IDR500mn, shifting tax payments from sellersdirectly to e-commerce platforms. The rule change aims to improve taxcollection, with the government finalizing the regulation after consultationswith stakeholders. Separately, the Supreme Court has ordered the governmentto revoke regulations permittingsand exports, ruling that they violate highermarine conservationlaws, according to a 2 June decision reported byBloomberg. MY:The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell further to-3.6% YoY in May from-3.4%in April, driven by a deeper decline in manufacturing (-3.0% from-2.6%) andelectricity & gas (-1.1% from-0.6%), while the mining sector PPI remainednegative (-15.0% from-17.8%). Meanwhile, the water supply PPI fell by-0.2%from 0.9%, while the agriculture, forestry, and fishing PPI eased to 1.8% from2.6%. The May print brings the April-May PPI average to-3.5% YoY, deepeningcompared to-0.3% in 1Q25. Prime Minister AnwarIbrahim is set to hold ameeting with Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta on Friday (27June). VN:Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh expects a trade deal with the US beforethe pause on 46% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese exports expires on 9 July,adding that the government is in frequent talks with the US. Among otherefforts, the government is workingto reduce illegal trans-shipment and expandimports of US goods. Credit Market Updates Market Commentary:The SGD SORA OIS curve traded lower yesterday withshorter and belly tenors trading 1-2bps lower while 10Y traded 1bps lower. AsperBloomberg,New World Development Co.has obtained writtencommitments from all banks for an HKD87.5bn loan refinancing, extending itsHKD63.4bn of debt that are due this year and next by three years. While thisprovides short-te