有色金属行业周报：需求淡季不淡，看好工业金属价格上行

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明投资EPS（元）评级2024A2025E2026E2027E买入0.781.161.411.74买入0.941.331.541.67买入0.630.680.790.87买入2.412.332.492.70 增持（维持）张航执业证书编号：S0680524090002邮箱：zhanghang@gszq.com初金娜执业证书编号：S0680525050001邮箱：chujinna@gszq.com何承洋执业证书编号：S0680124070005邮箱：hechengyang@gszq.com1、《有色金属：中东局势升级，黄金作为终极避险资产或迎增配》2025-06-222、《有色金属：百年复盘，寻找当下黄金的历史坐标》3、《有色金属：降息预期与地缘升温催化，金价强势反弹》2025-06-15PE2025E2026E16.2813.3618.6516.1012.1910.557.677.192024-102025-02有色金属沪深300 作者分析师分析师研究助理相关研究2025-06-172024A28.3022.9012.706.60 2027E10.8714.859.536.64 P.2内容目录一、周度数据跟踪..................................................................................................................................51.1板块&公司涨跌：本周有色金属板块涨跌不一.................................................................................51.2价格及库存变动：周内有色品种价格普遍下跌................................................................................61.3公司公告跟踪.............................................................................................................................8二、贵金属............................................................................................................................................9三、工业金属........................................................................................................................................113.1铜：库存结构性短缺，警惕逼仓风险............................................................................................113.2铝：库存低位叠加需求坚挺，短期铝价偏强震荡...........................................................................133.3镍：原料偏紧与需求淡季并存，镍价疲软运行...............................................................................16四、能源金属........................................................................................................................................184.1锂：情绪面驱动期货锂价跳涨，供强需弱格局未变锂价尚需磨底.....................................................184.2钴：刚果（金）钴出口禁令延期，钴价向上突破...........................................................................204.3金属硅：丰水期电力成本下调，供需宽松格局难改短期硅价震荡弱行..............................................22五、稀土&磁材......................................................................................................................................25风险提示..............................................................................................................................................27图表目录图表1：本周各大行业涨跌比较（%）....................................................................................................5图表2：本周申万有色二级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表3：本周申万有色三级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表4：本周有色板块涨幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表5：本周有色板块跌幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表6：贵金属价格涨跌........................................................................................................................6图表7：基本金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................6图表8：能源金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表9：稀土金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表10：小金属价格涨跌......................................................................................................................7图表11：交易所基本金属库存变动.........................................................................................................8图表12：有色分板块公司公告跟踪.........................................................................................................8图表13：美联储资产负债表规模............................................................................................................9图表14：全球黄金ETF周度持仓变化（吨）............................................................................................9图表15：美元实际利率与金价走势.........................................................................................................9图表16：美国国债收益率（%）............................................................................................................9图表17：美元指数走势........................................................................................................................10图表18：SPDR黄金ETF持有量（吨）..................................................................................................10图表19：美国新增非农就业与失业率.....................................................................................................10图表20：铜金比与金银比走势..............................................................................................................10图表21：美国制造业PMI（%）............................................................................................................10图表22：欧元区制造业PMI（%）.........................................................................................