旺季需求可能推高国内煤炭价格

OVERWEIGHT(Maintain)OVERWEIGHT(Maintain) Huatai Research Energy 27 June 2025│China (Mainland) Quick Take Seasonal coal price recovery likely; focus on sector allocation meritsRecent port coal pricesin Chinashow positive momentum, with mid/low-calorific value(CV)grades leading the rebound amid structural tightness, whichhas alsodriven slight gains inhigh-CV coal prices.As of 25 June2025,CCI5,500/5,000/4,500kcal thermal coal prices rosebyRMB2/10/9per tonnewowto RMB617/546/481. Rising temperatures are strengthening seasonal demandexpectations. With hydropower output down yoy,we expectthermal power dailyconsumption loadstoclimbup, reinforcing upward demand trends.Meanwhile,intensified safety/environmentalinspections at mines, scheduled maintenanceahead of month-end,and declining imports(as price arbitrage narrows) aretightening supply.This makes us upbeat on a marginal S/D recovery in China’scoal market.North ports inventory fellby c500k tonnes(-1.7%) this week(20-25June)from prior highs. We anticipate thermal coal prices to rebound seasonally asconsumption rises,andrecommendexposure to the undervalued coal sector.Ourtop picks include thermal coal leaders China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and ChinaCoal Energy for their robust earnings visibility during seasonal rallies. AnalystLIU JunSAC No.S0570523110003SFC No. AVM464karlliu@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 AnalystMA Mengchen, CFASAC No. S0570524100001SFC No. BUM666mamengchen@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 AnalystMIAO YufeiSAC No. S0570523120005SFC No. BTM578miaoyufei@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 AnalystQI TengyuanSAC No. S0570524080002SFC No. BVU938qitengyuan@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Peak season approaching, robustdemand growthlikelyDespite a 14.3% yoy decline in May hydropower generation, thermal power output in Chinaturned positive with 1.2% yoy growth while total electricity generationedged upby0.5% yoy. Average temperatures in China’smajor cities roseby15.7% mom in June, driving sustained power-demand growth. Jiangsu’s Julycentralized biddingpower pricerosebyRMB82.8/MWh mom to RMB395.6/MWh.We expect utilization of thermal power, asabaseload supplier,tostrengthen–early-June average daily power generation grewby5.05% yoy, with thermal outputexpandingby2.59% yoy despite hydropower remaining downby15.38% yoy.10Daverage daily coal consumption across 25 provincesin Chinaroseby2.1% yoyand5.2% mom, confirming seasonal load increases.TheNational Climate Centerforecasts July temperatures at/near historical highs,and the Three GorgesReservoir’slatest7Daverage dischargefellby8.8% yoy. If subsequent waterinflows remain weak, constrained hydropower could in our view further boostthermal generation and coal demand. Source: Wind, Huatai Research Import cuts drive marginal supply contractionChina’s2024 full-year coal importswerea record 540mntonnes, constituting a critical marginal supply variable. However,since early 2025, weakening domesticdemandand sustained coal price declines have eroded import coal’s pricecompetitiveness, driving cumulative5M25 coal imports down by 8.0% yoy to190mntonnes. Indonesia–the primary sourcefor China coal imports–sawthemost pronounced reductions:China’s5M25coal importsfrom Indonesiafellby11.75mntonnes (-12.9% yoy) to 79.35mntonnes.OnIndonesia’sEnergy Ministrydata,4M25coal production declinedby17% yoy to 220mntonnes,underpressurefromweak export demand and disruptive domestic floods. Additionally,Indonesia’sMarch implementation of HBA index-based export pricing (higher than thelegacyICIindex)coupled with transitional friction costs has further constrainedIndonesia’s coal export momentum. Industry risks: hydropower outperformance; import resilience. Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, LIU Jun, MA Mengchen, MIAO Yufei, QI Tengyuan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s)was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as“HFHL”). The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The pric