对YU7订单持乐观态度；对新产品周期持买入态度

Huatai Research Event Comment 27 June 2025│China (Hong Kong) Consumer Electronics AnalystHUANG Leping, PhDSAC No. S0570521050001SFC No. AUZ066huangleping@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 On 26 June 2025, Xiaomi hosted its‘Human-Car-Home’ productlaunch event,debuting products including theXiaomi YU7, itsfirst AI glasses, andtheMIX Flip2foldable phone, among others.We believe1)theYU7’s pricingalignedbroadlywithmarket expectations,while itschipsetandinterior specsexceeded streetexpectations.2)Xiaomiannounced289,000 non-refundable ordersfor YU7 withinonehour(including200,000 in the first three minutes),surpassing streetexpectations.3) TheAI glassesmet functional expectations from the market,withlightweight design(40g)andelectrochromic lensesas key highlights.Wereiterate BUYwith our SOTP-basedtarget price of HKD71.2,and are bullishabout1)the prospects of its smart EV(electric vehicle) and2) smart homeappliancesdriving sustained high revenueandprofit growth. AnalystCHEN XudongSAC No. S0570521070004SFC No. BPH392chenxudong@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 AnalystYU KeyiSACNo. S0570525030001SFC No. BVF938yukeyi@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Key data YU7: pricing in line with street estimates; specs/orders beatOn26 June 2025,Xiaomi launched itsSUV YU7,recording200,000 non-refundable orders within3 minutesand289,000within1 hour,equivalentto82.5% of its full-year 2025 delivery targetannounced earlier, exceeding marketexpectations. The YU7 offers9 colors, withthebase modelfeaturing835km CLTCrange,NVIDIA Thor 700 TOPS chip,LiDar,V6s Plus super motor, andSkyScreenpanoramic display. For ADAS, all models are equipped with the10mn Clipsversion, with Xiaomi’sXLALLMupgrade planned for2H25.We believe: 1)pricingforbase/PRO/MAXvariants atRMB253,500/279,900/329,900is competitive vsTesla’sequivalent models(starting atRMB263,500),aligning with streetexpectations; 2) YU7 delivers comprehensive hardware upgradeson top ofSU7,while supportingSU7 Ultra ownersto upgrade to thenew SU7 Ultra or YU7withina limited period.We suggest eying subsequentdeliveryprogress. AI glasses:electrochromic lensesthe highlightXiaomi launched its AI glasses with a starting price of RMB1,999, weighingonly 40gand equipped with the Qualcomm AR1 flagship chip.Features includethird-party app video calls&livestreaming, Type-C charging during use, andfour-level adjustable electrochromic lenses. The built-in Super XiaoAI supportsvoice-controlled photo&video capture, Q&A, translation, QR code payments, andlife assistance. The electrochromic version sold out on launch night. We believe: 1)the 40g weight is lighter than Meta Ray-Ban’s 48-51g, with a 64% larger batterycapacity, and the electrochromic function is a highlight; 2) AI capabilities are similartothose of Meta’s Ray-Ban; 3)the glasses can remotely control smart homedevices (eg, AC temperature adjustment, timed shutdown). We expect the launchof AI glasses to further enrich Xiaomi’s‘Human-Car-Home’ecosystem. Source:S&P Earnings forecasts and valuationWemaintainour2025/2026/2027 attributableNPforecastsatRMB41.0/51.3/63.2bn. Considering the company’s IoT segment and the value ofits ecosystem in the AI era, we maintain our SOTP-based target price ofHKD71.20(assuming forward HKD/RMB=0.92), including HKD26.3 per share for the autosegment. Our target price implies 41x 2025E PE. Maintain BUY. Risks: slower auto progress than the market expects; weaker smartphone demandthan we expect; a macroeconomicdowncycle. Valuation method Our SOTP-based target price for Xiaomi is HKD71.20, based on a forward exchange rate ofHKD1=RMB0.92. Our target price implies 41x 2025E PE. Maintain BUY. 1)Wemaintain oursmartphone businessvaluationat 25x 2025E PE (2025E net profit excludingauto investment), or HKD44.9/share (63% of our target valuation). This is a premium over itspeers’ average of18.9x on Wind consensus, primarily supported by faster growth of its IoTbusinesses (eg, home appliances), andour positive outlook on the value of its comprehensiveecosystem in the AI era. 2)WevalueXiaomi’s auto business at 2.5x 2027E PS(unchanged), or HKD26.3/share (37% ofour target valuation), above its peers’ average of 0.67x 2027E PS on Wind consensus, aswebelieve its new factories in Beijing and other locations could contribute additional productioncapacity to drive rapid growth in the auto business. We think the sales success of the SU7Ultra also demonstrates Xiaomi’s capabilities in the luxury vehicle segment. Furthermore, weexpect Xiaomi’s‘Human-Car-Home’strategy to provide strong support for the auto business,and the company’s overall resources could underpin its auto segment better than NEVstartups amid fierce competition. Source:S&P,Huatai Research Source:S&P,Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, HUANG Leping, CHEN Xudong, YU Keyi, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subjectsecurities or issuers; and no part of the comp