市场增长的五大关键考验

FIVE CRITICAL TESTSFOR MARKET GROWTH Organic growth remains one of the most difficult engines forcompanies to sustain. Companies have a number of options fordriving growth, from launching new products to targeting newcustomers. However, the critical decision companies must firstmake is which market they should pursue: the market they arecurrently in, an adjacent market, or a wholly new market. How does a company decide which market growth path to take? Market growth tests offer a way to evaluate growth options bydrawing on unmet customer needs, market sizes, industry trends,competitors, and the regulatory environment. By using growthtests, companies reduce the risk of underperforming in the market,heighten their effectiveness by understanding how to differentiatethemselvesfrom their competitors,and can concentrate theirefforts on the most attractive growth areas. This guidebook reviews five core market evaluation growth testsand examines the research tools that can help companies makeconsidered comparisons across their market growth path options. 1.CUSTOMER NEEDS TEST In the hunt for growth, the leading voice must be that of current and prospective customers. Companies should alwaysask: •What do our customers need—every day, and every sooften?•How strongly do they feel this need?•What problems are customers trying to solve by purchasing ourproduct? Understanding customer voice is crucial—otherwise, a company risks creating and/or introducing products to a newmarket that customers do not want, or do want, but only with lukewarm interest. One way in which a company maymisread customer voice is when they choose the wrong participants for customer interviews: for example, only currentcustomers, or customers who do not express any interest in the product or company. It is vital for companies tointerview a mix of current customers and prospective buyers who express a need in the product or have offeredfeedback that could lead to valuable insights. Prospective buyers are especially important as they enable companies totap into new market segments. Customerinterviews should collect feedback from existing andprospective customers on unmet needs. With an inventory of potentialneed areas, companies can conduct focus groups and/or in-depthinterviews to pinpoint the underlying challenges driving theseneeds. R E S E A R C H S O L U T I O NCUSTOMER INTERVIEWS 2.MARKET SIZE TEST The second market test to examine after confirming customer interest and need is market size. Being able to measure thevalue of a market in terms of overall size or value can help model a company's realistic penetration rates and long-termgrowth expectations. Companies should ask: •How should we define the market?•What are the important segments and clusters?•How large are the revenues generated annually? While some markets are full of easily accessible market data, smaller markets can be trickier to gauge. Even if modeling marketsize is a challenge, securing some sense of size is critical when placing growth bets across various marketopportunities. R E S E A R C H S O L U T I O NMARKET SIZING Market sizing should quantify the value or volume and, depending ondata availability, should include data on the projected growth/decline ofthe market. Two frequently used approaches for market sizing include: Bottom-Up Analysis:Develop a reasonable estimate ofsales growth based on the sales channels you intendto use, number of locations you will sell from, andcompetitor revenue and growth stats. Top-Down Analysis:Research the total market for theoffering, then form a reasonable estimate of your portionof that market, which becomes your availablemarket. 3.MARKET DYNAMICS TEST Building on the confirmation of customer need and attractive market size, growth opportunities must be evaluated foroverarching market dynamics. Companies should ask: •Is customer and end user demand growing?•What is driving current demand and how does it project into the future?•What macroeconomic forces are at play that may make a market more or less attractive? Frequently, advanced modeling can help predict market direction, but the quality of the analysis may rest on thestrength of the assumptions. A market demand review should gather the trends that can shapebuyer and end user demand and assess whether the cumulativeeffect will be to grow, shrink, or leave demand flat. Market demandsshould also unpack the drivers and limiters of demand, includingrelevant macroeconomic indicators. R E S E A R C H S O L U T I O NMARKET DEMAND REVIEW 4.COMPETITOR TEST While the first three tests focus on the relative attractiveness of a market, the final two gauge the restrictive elementsthat create hurdles to entry. The saturation of a market with competitors directly (and negatively) impacts a productidea's attractiveness. The competitor test directs companies to ask questions such as: •What does the competitor landscape look like?•What are the elements competitors compete