AI社交网络，人类的远大前程

2AIAI--SSoocciiaall NNeettww oorrkk,, TThhee ggrreeaattexpectation of human 10亿+微信支付日均商业支付交易量（次）￥约2万亿+微信小程序单季度总交易额25Q124Q3微信支付日均商业支付交易量为19Q4微信小程序单季度总交易额为24Q3，付费增值服务订阅数25Q1 01 01IphonePerplexity 4OpenAI 01+++25Q118Q424Q320232019-2020QuestMobile&WeChat24Q318Q42020520222020日均总支付交易量为19Q4 202020226 AI02Meta AI02 AINFX AIAI0221Q4Sign HouseBloomberg Business of APPs Fidelity Business Insider2021Instagram2018MAUTwitter2023Youtube2024 AI02STTSS1-32BinstructS11000115Gs1: Simple test-time scaling OpenAIo1 DeepSeek R1 AIMeta AI0224Q2MetaMeta AIMetaMeta AI24Q3Meta AIAI24Q47202510To C:MetaAI AgentsAI AgentsAITo B:MetaMeta(AI studioMetaAIMeta24Q2-24Q4Meta 11MetaMeta AI5MetaAI StudioAI AgentAI Agents) 03股票代码股票简称市值2024A0700.HK腾讯42,973亿元2,227亿元META.OMeta15,766亿美元624亿美元GOOGL.O谷歌20505亿美元1,001亿美元1,081亿美元1,194亿美元WindNon-IFRS 0700.HK25Q11800+13%613+22%1921+17.2%2319+20.2%3AI25Q118921%275指标名称202120222023营业收入（百万）560,118554,552609,015同比增长（%）16.2-1.09.8毛利润（百万）245,944238,746293,109经调整净利润（百万）123,788115,649157,688同比增长（%）0.9-6.636.4经调整净利率（百万）22.120.925.915.623.316.6FactsetFactset2025/5/23 031Q25 PE 595+24%+24%+22%549+5%+ 91%20242025E2026E660,257730,367794,5068.410.68.8349,246400,295439,299222,703245,557272,73441.210.311.133.733.634.316.218.216.2 0700.HK25Q1A IAI7253/7879/86117173/7732/8368Non-IFRS2525xPE735AI股票代码股票简称市值（亿美元）归母净利润（亿美元）2024A2025EMETA.OMETAPLATFORMS15,766623.60656.99GOOGL.O谷歌20,5051001.181141.67AMZN.O亚马逊21,338592.48685.73MSFT.O微软33,460881.361003.289988.HK阿里巴巴2,896112.39180.379999.HK网易76341.3147.18平均值WindWind2025/5/23 03 14A I25-27E2490/2746/31232371/2603/3058PE2026E2024A2025E2026E737.8323.7024.0021.371236.3223.1417.9116.54828.9238.9431.1225.741154.8137.6933.3528.97201.4616.2717.3314.3850.5413.8616.1815.1025.6023.3220.35 25Q1423.1+16.1%166.4+34.6%+16.2%97.8%RealityLab4.1-6.4%APP DAP34.3+5.9%67%6%35%Threads3.5&CAPEX25Q2425-455+8.8%-16.5%METAMeta.O指标名称202120222023营业收入（百万）117,929116,609134,902同比增长（%）37.2-1.115.7毛利润（百万）95,28091,360108,943净利润（百万）39,37023,20039,098同比增长（%）35.1-41.168.5净利率（%）33.419.929.024.414.023.8MetaFactsetFactset2025/5/23 1Q2503PE 1525Q1413.942.1+ 5%+10%FacebookInstagramThreadsMetaAI10Llama 42025640-72020242025E2026E2027E164,501187,231212,068237,40521.913.813.311.9134,338150,782168,921188,33162,36065,58272,41782,19859.55.210.413.537.935.034.134.624.525.022.620.1 Meta25Q125-2718612113 23721864/2134/239625E PE 28X720“”AIMETAMeta.OMeta股票代码股票简称市值（亿美元）归母净利润（亿美元）2024A2025EGOOGL.O谷歌20,5051001.181141.67AMZN.O亚马逊21,338592.48685.73AAPL.O苹果29,165937.361089.82平均值WindWind2025/5/23 16MetaAI649727 833654/741/844DMAPE2026E2024A2025E2026E1236.3223.1417.9116.54828.9238.9431.1225.741187.1136.9526.7624.5733.0125.2622.28 GOOGL.O902+12%345+46%25Q1669+8%+10%123+28%24Q4+30%18%+8pcts+0.2pctsCAPEX25Q1172+43.2%750指标名称202120222023营业收入（百万）257,637282,836307,394同比增长（%）41.29.88.7毛利润（百万）146,698156,633174,062净利润（百万）76,03359,97273,795同比增长（%）88.8-21.123.0净利率（%）29.521.224.025.819.524.3FactsetFactset2025/5/23 031Q25PE 17507+10%YouTube8922+142%+4%20242025E2026E2027E350,018387,674428,710470,38313.910.810.69.7203,712227,781252,115280,519100,118116,260122,003136,46235.716.14.911.928.630.028.529.023.718.317.315.1 GOOGL.O25Q13899/4339/47791081/1194/1384AI股票代码股票简称市值（亿美元）归母净利润（亿美元）2024A2025EAMZN.O亚马逊21,338592.48685.73AAPL.O苹果29,165937.361089.82MSFT.O微软33,460881.361003.28META.OMETAPLATFORMS15,766623.60656.99ADBE.O奥多比1,73855.6069.79平均值WindWind2025/5/23 18AI25E-27E25PE 23X204PE2026E2024A2025E2026E828.9238.9431.1225.741187.1136.9526.7624.571154.8137.6933.3528.97737.8323.7024.0021.3777.5540.8524.9022.4135.6328.0324.61 19AIAI--SSoocciiaall NNeettww oorrkk,, TThhee ggrreeaattexpectation of human 04 1.投资建议的比较标准300指数的涨跌幅。报告发布日后的12个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深2.投资建议的评级标准公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300指数涨跌幅为基准。以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12个月内的投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。 20评级说明行业投资评级股票投资评级明显弱于沪深300指数减持基本与沪深300指数持平中性明显强于沪深300指数增持相对沪深300指数下跌5%以上减持相对沪深300指数涨幅介于-5%～5%中性相对沪深300指数涨幅介于5%～15%之间谨慎增持相对沪深300指数涨幅15%以上增持说明评级 THANKS FORLISTENING