乌兹别克斯坦共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperontheRepublic of Uzbekistanwas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onMay 30, 2025. Copies ofthis report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByMiddle East and CentralAsia Department Prepared By Alejandro Simone and Lawrence Dwight THE SEQUENCING AND SPEED OF REFORMS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES:IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN_____________________________________ 3 A. Introduction __________________________________________________________________________ 3B. Academic Literature on the Transition Process and Sequencing and Speed ofReforms _________________________________________________________________________________ 4C. Sequencing and Speed of Transition Reform Experiences ___________________________ 9D. Uzbekistan’s Transition Progress____________________________________________________ 11E. Policy Implications for Reform Implementation Going Forward _____________________ 14 FIGURES 1. EBRD Core Transition Indicators 1989-2014_________________________________________ 172. EBRD Infrastructure Reform Indicators ______________________________________________ 183. Financial Sector Reform Indicators __________________________________________________ 19 TABLE 1. Typology of Transition Economies Depending on the their Initial TransitionStrategies______________________________________________________________________________ 9 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 20 UZBEKISTAN AND PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: COUNTRY LESSONS _______21 A. The Nature of Public-Private Partnerships __________________________________________ 21B. Uzbekistan’s Experience with PPPs __________________________________________________ 21C. Risks from PPPs _____________________________________________________________________ 24D. Managing Risks _____________________________________________________________________ 27 FIGURES 1. Structure of Public Investment vs PPPs ______________________________________________________ 222. Selected Countries: Stock of PPPs in 2019___________________________________________________ 243. Historical and Planned PPPs, 2019-2030_____________________________________________________ 254. Shares of PPPs by Sector ____________________________________________________________________ 265. Planned Flow of PPPs by Sector and Year of Signing, 2019-2030 ___________________________ 266. Potential Risk Factors in PPPs________________________________________________________________ 287. Main Causes of PPP Renegotiation __________________________________________________________ 33 TABLES 1. Common Fiscal Costs and Fiscal Risks from PPPs____________________________________________ 242. Value and Share of PPP Projects, December 2024 ___________________________________________ 25 ANNEX I. Legal and Institutional Framework for Pubilic -Private Partnerships _________________________ 38 References _____________________________________________________________________________________ 40 THE SPEED AND SEQUENCING OF REFORMS INTRANSITION ECONOMIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THECASE OF UZBEKISTAN Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since 2017. Key areasof progress are macroeconomic stabilization, trade and exchange rate liberalization, priceliberalization, and small-scale privatization where the speed and sequencing of transition reforms aresimilar to that of other successful transition economies. There are nevertheless challenges with thereform and privatization of large state-owned enterprises, the establishment of a competitiveenvironment with easy market entry and exit, and the reduction and transformation of the role of thestate in the economy. Reforms going forward should focus on entrenching macroeconomic stability,completing price and trade liberalization, hardening budget constraints for state-owned enterprises(SOEs) and state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), strengthening SOE and SOCB corporategovernance, accelerating SOE and SOCB privatization, and refocusing the state’s role as an enabler ofan environment conducive to private sector development. A.Introduction 1.Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since2017.Key achievements were the unification of the official and parallel market exchange rates andelimination of foreign exchange restrictions; the deregulation of prices for most goods and services;the liberalization of trade, including significant progress towards World Trade Organization (WTO)accession; and the