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AnalystEva YISAC No. S0570520100005SFC No. AMH263evayi@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 Huatai Research 23 June 2025│China (Mainland) Weekly AnalystHE Kang,PhDSAC No. S0570520080004SFC No. BRB318hekang@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2202 Index downward revision likely limited; increase allocation amidvolatilityLastweek saw H-shares correct amid rapid and great early-stagegains,geopolitical risks,local liquidity concerns, andA-to-H share premiumfluctuations,although excessive pessimism is unwarranted.1) Geopoliticaltensionsremain observable but unpredictable—under baseline scenarios,apotentialTrump administration’s‘America First’policy would likely drive‘deterrence + negotiation’volatility, requiring continued monitoring.2)Technicalpressure resulted intheHKD hitting the weak-side convertibilityundertaking (CU),and we thinkHIBOR’s rise may plateau in themoderate-low range, with liquiditytightening pressurefelt more amongsmall-andmid-cap H-shares.3) TheA-Hpremiumlacks fundamental justification for further expansion and may hovernear128in the short term,in our view.Tactically,high-dividend names+consumer staplesoffer defensive positioning, while3Q25 volatilitycreatesaccumulation opportunities intech(hard & core tech, Internet and AI undertechnicalupgrade trends)andconsumption(post-property cycle recovery inInternet consumption and pharmaceuticals, and mass-market consumptionsuchaspersonal care, dairy products,and agri products). Three reasons behind H-shares correction;medium-term trend intact1) Geopolitical risks:Middle East tensions heightened risk-off sentiment amidfearsof Iran-Israel conflict escalation.President Trump’s Friday statementondeciding within two weeks on Iran strikestemporarily eased tensions, aidingarisk asset recovery.Looking ahead, we believetheTrump administration’s foreignpolicy would likely adhere to‘America First,’with a scaled-back Middle Eaststrategy.Investors could refer to‘TACO’(Trump Always Chickens Out, as seen inthe tariff hikes) tactics for building their trading strategies,andnon-fundamentalvolatility creates fresh entry opportunities, on our estimates. 2) Hong Kong liquidity concerns:FollowingtheHKMA’sMay liquidity injection,wideningUS-HK rate spreadsdrove HKD weakness via carry trades, pushingtheHKDto theweak-sideCUlast week. Markets fear prolonged HKD weakness couldforce the HKMA to absorb massive sell orders, tighteningHKDliquidity, liftinginterestratesin Hong Kong,andexertingpressure onthe economyandfinancialmarkets. As seen in our report(see HKD Touches Weak-Side CU:No OverreactionNeeded,published on 18 June 2025),against the backdrop of RMBstabilizationor even appreciation expectations, the likelihood of the HKDpersistently challenging the weak-side CU or experiencing a sharp liquiditysqueeze is low.In the future,HIBOR mayrebound moderately from ultra-lowlevels and settle within a low-to-mid-range,on our estimate.During the recent ratedecline,small-cap H-shares(with higher local broker ownership and fewer StockConnect inclusions) saw disproportionate holdings growth.We thus believe thateven considering modest liquidity tightening, it could havealimited impact onlarge-cap stocks. 3)TheA-H premium reached a cyclical low:The A-H Premium Index recentlybroke below127to its lowest level since mid-2020,although last week’s tradingdrove a rebound. We maintain thatmedium-term drivers forsystemic premiumnarrowing—includingthe stabilizing H-share market,improved market turnover,andquality asset inflows—remain intact.Based on our estimates (see our reportOverseas Outlook 2H25: Rebalancing Underway,published on 8 June 2025),underassumptions of a sluggishUSD,receding global policy uncertainty, coupledwithnewly-listed A-H sharesbeing incorporated inthe Hang Seng A-H PremiumIndex,we project the2H25 A-H premium medianat c.128. Should theUSD indexshift from96to92/100, theA-Hpremium couldfluctuatebetween122-133.The core logic above lies inongoing re-rating of RMB-denominated assets,suggestingcapital should focus onaccumulation opportunities amidvolatility. Near-term risks center ongeopolitical tensions driving USD strengthbeyond expectations, which could amplifyHKD selling pressure-induced liquiditytighteningandA-H premium resurgence, both potentiallybeating marketforecasts.Market fluctuations wouldoffer an entry window for allocation. Defensive assets as base position, core asset accumulation on dipsWe expect H-shares to transition from an uptrend tophased volatilityin 3Q25, thoughincreased allocation logic remains intact—buying on corrections andholdingremains viable.Allocation wise,werecommend accumulatingtech(hard &core tech, Internet and AI under technical upgradetrends) and consumption(post-property cycle recovery in Internet consumption and pharmaceuticals, andmass-market consumption like personal care, dairy products,and agri products),while big finance (local enterprises and Chinese-backed stocks) could still serve asbase positions. Risks:geopolitical and USD uncertainty; position of l