基础股票的ST分化及信用评级调整受关注

AnalystZHANG JiqiangSAC No. S0570518110002SFC No. AMB145zhangjiqiang@htsc.com+(86)10 6321 1166 Huatai Research 23 June 2025│China (Mainland) Convertible bond weekly Ourweekly core viewsWenote recent moderation in onshore China stock market activity reflects short-term(ST)structural divergence and weak consensus.However,medium-term support and potential inflection points remain intact, with indiceslikelyto maintain narrow-range fluctuations, in our view. Key points to watchinclude US-China trade developments, Middle East geopolitics, small/micro-capliquidity, and interim earnings. We advise maintaining defensive positioning whileseizing opportunities, particularly in oversold quality tech stocks. On convertiblebonds (CBs), we retainaneutral stance with continued emphasis on selectivepositioning.Although issuers face imminent rating adjustments, we view risks aslargelycontrollable except for liquidity risks in specific issues.CB selectionpriorities:1)focus on large/mid-cap bond-like CBs with portfolio hedgingcapabilities;2)quality new issues benefiting from supply contraction;3)mid/small-capnames with low premium ratios and price protection. Equity-market outlook:maintaining narrow-range fluctuationsRecenttrading volume contraction in the onshore China stock market has dampened thematic activity, while market divergence persists across strong/weakthemes, large/small cap styles, investor positioning, and long/short horizons. Weseeequities as operating in a high-noise environment with elevatedinternal/externaluncertainties,whereweakconsensuslimitsshort-termimprovement.However,we think medium-term support remains–ampleoff-market liquidity and domestic‘quasi-stabilization funds’provide safety buffers,likely anchoring indices in narrow-range fluctuations. Investors should maintaintactical trading discipline with defensivepositioning, seeking opportunities duringpullbacks.Thematically,we suggest focusing on industrial catalysts,policyexpectationsandinstitutional positioning,prioritizing quality oversold tech names. Allocation:HDYstability, industrial champions, stablecoinsAt sector level,weprioritize 1)high-dividend-yield (HDY)/value sectors maintaining bond-like characteristics and institutional allocation rationale; 2)positioning inglobally competitive Chinese industrial champions (eg, lithium batteries, precisioncomponents) awaiting valuationre-rating; monitor‘anti-involution’trends in autospotentially spreading to solar sectors, benefiting sector leaders; 3)frontier tech (AI,nuclear fusion) with sufficient corrections, suggesting positioning around narrativecatalysts; 4)defense equipment exporters leveraging global arms trade demand;5)short-term themes: stablecoin-related digital currencies/cross-border payments,solid-state battery breakthroughs. CBs:ratingadjustments onindividualCBsThis year has seen fewer rating adjustments than the same period last year: 1) 14 individualCBs have been downgraded since April 2025, with pre-adjustmenthigher-rated issuers includingWingtech, Jinneng, and Guocheng; 2)Wingtechexperienced relatively larger declines (>2% post-adjustment); 3)total adjustmentsremain below levelsfor the same period last year. Overall, this year’s ratingchanges have shown limited marketimpact with materially lower credit risks vs lastyear’s levels,although liquidity risks post-adjustment still warrant caution. Forpending solar-sector rating adjustments, we expect manageable market impactdue to: 1)some solarCBsalready pricing in adjustments at non-elevated levels; 2)rating agencies’proactive tracking of pre-loss issuers since early 2025; 3)broadmarket pricing of credit/liquidity risks, suggesting limited contagion even if solarCBsface downgrades. CB advice: neutral stance maintained, focus on structural opportunities Valuations for CBs remain at high levels albeit with recent minor corrections. Wemaintaina neutral stance on CBs due to: 1)reduced equity-market volatilitycreating headwinds; 2)peak allocation demandhavingpassed, withS/Dmainlyprovidingsupport;3)CB selection space narrowing.Nevertheless,structuralopportunities persistamiddemand support andliquidity abundance, prioritizing: 1)demand/liquidity beneficiaries–post bank CB delistings,focus on AA-ratedmid/large-cap bond-like issues meeting demandfor base positions; 2)quality newissues benefiting from supply contraction, particularly low-priced offerings;and3)mid/small-caps with low premiums and price protection. Risks:underlying stocks underperforming;liquidity shocks from bond-fundredemptions; individual bond delistings or credit risks. Disclaimers Analyst Certification I/We, ZHANG Jiqiang, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s)about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and