核心业务稳步增长，硫化锂打造固态电池核心壁垒

2024A2025E2026E2027E13,29717,06319,55122,496(23.19)28.3314.5815.07494.07806.44930.151,117.73(6.33)63.2215.3420.171.171.922.212.6646.8428.7024.8820.70 东吴证券研究所1/302025年06月23日证券分析师曾朵红执业证书：S0600516080001021-60199793zengdh@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师阮巧燕执业证书：S0600517120002021-60199793ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师岳斯瑶执业证书：S0600522090009yuesy@dwzq.com.cn研究助理胡锦芸执业证书：S0600123070110hujinyun@dwzq.com.cn55.00一年最低/最高价25.38/61.392.61流通A股市值(百万元)23,142.41总市值(百万元)23,142.41每股净资产(元,LF)21.07资产负债率(%,LF)36.88总股本(百万股)420.77流通A股(百万股)420.772024/10/222025/2/192025/6/19厦钨新能沪深300 股价走势市场数据收盘价(元)市净率(倍)基础数据相关研究2024/6/24 -20%-9%2%13%24%35%46%57%68%79% 内容目录1.厦钨新能：钴酸锂全球龙头，盈利稳健，并逐步提升..................................................................41.1.深耕正极材料，钴酸锂龙头企业.............................................................................................41.2.背靠厦门钨业，股权结构稳定且集中.....................................................................................41.3.业务：钴酸锂和三元正极双轮驱动，新材料加速布局.........................................................51.4.财务：24年起盈利水平逐步恢复，经营性利润持续向上....................................................72.钴酸锂：需求重回增长，新技术不断迭代打开利润空间..............................................................92.1.钴酸锂行业格局稳定，跟随消费电子恢复增长.....................................................................92.2.公司技术优势领先，高电压钴酸锂独占鳌头.......................................................................122.3.公司开发新型NL正极，引领行业技术变革.......................................................................143.三元正极：聚焦中镍高电压产品，拓展铁锂正极........................................................................153.1.三元行业：行业增速稳定，中镍高电压份额提升...............................................................153.1.1.行业增速：趋于稳定，至2030年CAGR近10%.....................................................153.1.2.行业格局：中镍高电压份额提升，厦钨市占率稳居中镍第二.................................163.2.公司：中镍高压技术领先，拓展下游新领域销量高增.......................................................173.2.1.中镍高电压性能领先，深度绑定优质客户.................................................................173.2.2.坚持全球化战略，法国布局产能.................................................................................183.2.3.拓展下游新领域销量逆势增长，25年预计单吨盈利稳定........................................193.3.公司开创性布局铁红工艺磷酸铁锂正极，未来放量可期...................................................204.固态电池产业发展提速，技术聚焦，公司硫化锂竞争力强........................................................204.1.行业：固态电池聚焦硫化物，中试线加速落地...................................................................204.2.硫化物电池：降本核心为硫化锂，性能要求高...................................................................234.3.公司硫化锂聚焦气相法，背靠集团，优势明显...................................................................255.盈利预测与投资建议........................................................................................................................266.风险提示............................................................................................................................................28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/30 图表目录图1：公司发展历程..................................................................................................................................4图2：公司股权结构（截止2024年末）................................................................................................5图3：公司营收及增速（亿元）..............................................................................................................8图4：公司归母净利润及增速（亿元）..................................................................................................8图5：公司毛利率及净利率......................................................................................................................8图6：公司期间费用率..............................................................................................................................8图7：公司经营性现金流净额及增速（亿元）......................................................................................9图8：钴酸锂的稳定层状结构..................................................................................................................9图9：钴酸锂国内产量数据....................................................................................................................10图10：24年钴酸锂下游应用市场..........................................................................................................11图11：2024年钴酸锂全球市场竞争格局..............................................................................................11图12：公司钴酸锂出货情况（万吨）................................................................................................12图13：主流高电压钴酸锂生产难点解决..............................................................................................13图14：国内三元各型号产量占比（右轴：高镍三元占比）..............................................................16图15：公司三元正极产销量及单吨毛利（右轴：单吨毛利）..........................................................20图16：硫化锂具备反萤石结构..............................................................................................................24图17：硫化物电解质成本核算（Li6PS5Cl为例）.............................................................................24图18：硫化锂制备工艺汇总............................................................