金属行业2025年中期投资策略系列报告之工业金属篇：莫听穿林打叶声，何妨吟啸且徐行

证券研究报告12025年06月20日维持评级[Table_Author]邱祖学执业证书：S0100521120001qiuzuxue@mszq.com张弋清执业证书：S0100523100001zhangyiqing@mszq.com研究助理南雪源执业证书：S0100123070035nanxueyuan@mszq.com研究助理袁浩执业证书：S0100123090011yuanhao@mszq.com1.有色金属周报20250615：地缘冲突升级，贵金属价格走强-2025/06/152.有色金属周报20250608：关税缓和，工业金属价格震荡走强-2025/06/083.有色金属周报20250601：美国关税不确定性仍存，继续看好金价-2025/06/024.有色金属周报20250525：美债信用弱化+地缘局势升温，看好金价表现-2025/05/255.有色金属周报20250518：中美关税摩擦缓和，工业金属价格上行-2025/05/18 评级2027E76推荐66推荐66推荐65推荐6161推荐98推荐1110推荐1110推荐87推荐 推荐分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：邮箱：邮箱：相关研究 目录1 2025年H1回顾及H2展望....................................................................................................................................31.1金属价格偏强震荡，韧性凸显.........................................................................................................................................................31.2板块行情：涨幅靠前，相对收益出色............................................................................................................................................51.3展望2025H2：莫听穿林打叶声，何妨吟啸且徐行...................................................................................................................72电解铝：重视铝土矿资源属性..................................................................................................................................82.1海外：印尼电解铝规划项目多，但落地不确定性较大...............................................................................................................82.2国内：新增产能寥寥，迫近天花板..............................................................................................................................................112.3新兴领域成为新的增长引擎，传统领域韧性仍在.....................................................................................................................142.4关注几内亚铝土矿供应风险...........................................................................................................................................................182.5新增产能释放，氧化铝走向过剩..................................................................................................................................................252.6电解铝利润修复，向上弹性可期..................................................................................................................................................293铜：供给曲线陡峭，价格韧性凸显........................................................................................................................323.1铜价：需求压力测试，铜价触底反弹..........................................................................................................................................323.2关税套利持续，降息提供金融属性支撑......................................................................................................................................323.3供给端：长期资本开支受限与短期矿山频繁扰动共振.............................................................................................................343.4需求端：内需政策刺激+海外供应链重构仍为增长主力..........................................................................................................423.5库存：库存历史低位，铜价易涨难跌..........................................................................................................................................503.6供需平衡：供需边际趋紧，铜价中枢上行..................................................................................................................................514投资建议与重点推荐标的......................................................................................................................................544.1投资建议............................................................................................................................................................................................544.2中国铝业：一体化优势显现，资产负债表不断优化.................................................................................................................544.3中孚实业：电解铝权益产能提升，受益氧化铝价格走弱.........................................................................................................554.4中国宏桥：电解铝龙头，一体化布局优势显现.........................................................................................................................574.5天山铝业：电解铝产能扩张，一体化优势显现.........................................................................................................................584.6五矿资源：明珠蒙尘，光耀新生..................................................................................................................................................594.7洛阳钼业：铜钴共振，收购绿地金矿构建第二成长曲线.........................................................................................................614.8紫金矿业：笃守宏猷，再攀万重峰..............................................................................................................................................624.9金诚信：矿服+资源双轮驱动，持续成长的后起之秀..............................................................................................................634.10中国有色矿业：估值低，自产铜未来增长空间大...................................................................................................................645风险提示.......................................................................................