中国期货每日简报

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense[2012]No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期期货货国国际化际研化究研|究CITI|C中Fu信tur期es货In研ter究na所tionIanltRerensaetaiorcnhal2022042-51/00-60/920 中国期货每日简报 ChinaFuturesDailyNote 桂晨曦GuiChenxi从业资格号QualificationNo：F3023159投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0013632 CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract MacroNews:MOFCOMstatedthatitwillcontinuouslyacceleratereviewofrareearthsexportlicenseapplicationsinaccordancewithlawsandregulations. FuturesPrices:OnJune19th,equityindexfuturesdeclinedwhile30-YCGBfuturesrose;energy&chemicalfuturesincreased,whilemetalfuturesdeclined. Commentary:CrudeOil,Copper,Gold Risks:Macroeconomicfluctuations,geopoliticalsituations,andreversalsinpolicytrends. 宏观方面：商务部表示将依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查。 期货方面：6月19日，股指期货下跌，长端国债期货上涨；能化期货延续强势，金属期货表现偏弱。 今日点评：原油、铜、黄金 风险提示：宏观经济波动、地缘政治变化、政策趋向扭转。 RecentCommentary近期点评 【20250619】Paraxylene,IronOre,Poly-Silicon对二甲苯、铁矿石、多晶硅 【20250618】TSR20,Ethenylbenzene,Gold20号胶、苯乙烯、黄金 【20250617】CrudeOil,RBDPalmOlein,LithiumCarbonate原油、棕榈油、碳酸锂 *Clickonthehyperlinkofreporttitlestoreadhistoricalreports 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness.Theopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthisreport. Content目录 1.ChinaFutures期货异动4 1.1Overview行情概述4 1.2DailyRise上涨品种5 1.2.1CrudeOil原油5 1.3DailyDrop下跌品种6 1.3.1Copper铜6 1.3.2Gold黄金7 2.ChinaNews中国要闻8 2.1MacroNews宏观新闻8 2.2IndustryNews行业新闻8 2 Graphs图表 图表1：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyRise4 中国期货主力连续合约涨幅前十4 图表2：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyDrop4 中国期货主力连续合约跌幅前十4 图表3：TheRecentTrendofCrudeOil5 原油价格近期快速拉涨5 图表4：6/19,crudeoilincreasedby4.7%5 6月19日，原油上涨4.7%5 图表5：TheRecentTrendofCopper6 铜价格震荡上行6 图表6：6/19,copperdecreasedby0.4%6 6月19日，铜下跌0.4%6 图表7：TheRecentTrendofGold7 黄金价格整体呈现出震荡上行趋势7 图表8：6/19,golddecreasedby0.5%7 6月19日，黄金下跌0.5%7 图表9：TheChangeofFuturesPricesandOpenInterests9 中国期货涨跌幅与持仓变化9 图表10：ChinaFuturesPrice10 中国期货概览10 3 1.ChinaFutures期货异动 1.1Overview行情概述 OnJune19th,equityindexfuturesdeclinedwhile30-YCGBfuturesrose;energy&chemicalfuturesincreased,whilemetalfuturesdeclined. ThetopthreegainerswereChinesejujube,crudeoil,andLSFO.Chinesejujubesurged4.9%withopeninterestincreasingby29.6%month-on-month;crudeoilrose4.7%withopeninterestup8.4%month-on-month;LSFOgained2.7%withopeninterestdecreasingby0.5%month-on-month. ThetopthreedeclinerswereSCFIS(Europe),poly-silicon,andsilver.SCFIS(Europe)fell4.0%withopeninterestdown0.4%month-on-month;poly-silicondropped2.5%withopeninterestdecreasingby9.3%month-on-month;silverdeclined1.9%withopeninterestreducingby13.1%month-on-month. 6月19日，股指期货下跌，长端国债期货上涨；能化期货延续强势，金属期货表现偏弱。 涨幅前三的品种是红枣、原油和低硫燃料油，其中红枣上涨4.9%，持仓环比增加29.6%；原油上涨4.7%，持仓环比增加8.4%；低硫燃料油上涨2.7%，持仓环比减少0.5%。 跌幅前三的品种是SCFIS欧线、多晶硅和白银，其中SCFIS欧线下跌4.0%，持仓环比减少0.4%；多晶硅下跌2.5%，持仓环比减少9.3%；白银下跌1.9%，持仓环比减少13.1%。 图表1：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyRise 中国期货主力连续合约涨幅前十 图表2：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyDrop 中国期货主力连续合约跌幅前十 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0% Poly-Silicon -2.5% ChineseJujube CrudeOil LSFO EthyleneGlycolEthenylbenzene ParaxylenePolyesterStapleFiber PTA Glass Methanol 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 2.7% 4.9% 4.7% Silver CSI1000 CSI500 CSI300 No.1Soybean SSE50 AppleZincGold -1.9% -1.2% -1.0% -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -3.0%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0% Source:iFind,CITICFuturesSource:iFind,CITICFutures 4 1.2DailyRise上涨品种 1.2.1CrudeOil原油 OnJune19,crudeoilincreasedby4.7%to570.9yuan/barrel.Uncertaintiesingeopoliticalprospectshaveplacedoilpricesinahigh-riskphase,withvolatilityexpectedasthemarketawaitsfurtherclarity. APIdatashowedasignificantdrawinU.S.crudeoilinventorieslastweek,butthedeclineingasolineinventorieswasmoremodest.TheIEAmonthlyreportreviseddownitsannualdemandgrowthforecastwhileraisingsupplyexpectations.Intheshortterm,geopoliticalconcernsintheMiddleEastaredominatingoilpricefluctuations.Attacksonenergyinfrastructurehaveemerged，yettheyhavenotyethadamaterialimpactoncrudeoilproductionortransportation.Iftheattitudesofbothsidessofteninthelaterstage,geopoliticalpremiumsareexpectedtodeclinerapidly.However,againstthebackdropofcontinuousmilitaryconflicts,theexpectationofsupplydisruptionsremainsdifficulttofalsify,leadingtoanincreasinglyvolatiletradingrangeforoilprices. 6月19日，至570.9元/桶。地缘前景不确定性使得油价处高风险阶段，预计震荡等待进一步明朗。 API数据显示美国上周原油大幅去库，但汽油去库幅度较小。IEA月报调降年内需求增速预期但调高供应预期，短期中东地缘担忧主导油价波动，目前陆续出现对能源基础设施的袭击，但尚未对原油生产或运输产生实质影响。若后期双方态度出现软化，地缘溢价有望快速回落，但在军事冲突持续的背景下供应受到扰动的预期始终难以证伪，油价呈现波动加大的震荡局面。 图表3：TheRecentTrendofCrudeOil 原油价格近期快速拉涨 图表4：6/19,crudeoilincreasedby4.7%6月19日，原油上涨4.7% Source:iFind,CITICFuturesSource:iFind,CITICFutures 5 1.3DailyDrop下跌品种 1.3.1Copper铜 OnJune19,copperdecreasedby0.4%to78310yuan/ton.Supplyconstraintsforcopperpersist,andinventoriesremainatlowlevels,supportingthebottomofcopperprices.Webelievecoppermayexhibithigh-levelvolatileintheshortterm. Macros