中国期货每日简报

China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC FuturesInternational ResearchEnglish Website：https://inst.citicsf.com/en 摘要Abstract 能化板块维持活跃，多头情绪偏强。原油因美新一轮对俄制裁公布而上涨，燃油和沥青应声走强。氧化铝因多地产能释放而供需转宽，盘面暂时下行。宏观层面，12月美元计进出口显著提高，跨资本市场开放合作战略相继落地，我国积极推动社会融资环境的进一步宽松，致力于实现高质量经济发展。 The energy and chemical sector remains active, with bullish sentiment prevailing. Crude oil pricesrose following the announcement of a new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia, which in turn led tostrength in fuel oil and asphalt. Alumina prices are under pressure due to the release of new capacityin multiple regions, causing a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. dollar-denominated imports and exports saw a notableincrease in December, while strategies for cross-capital market openness and cooperation have beenprogressively implemented. China is actively working to further ease the social financing environmentand is committed to achieving high-quality economic development. 1.中国期货ChinaFutures 1.1整体行情概述Overview 能源化工板块较活跃，合成橡胶、燃油、原油等品种涨幅超过5%，且伴随5%以上的增仓，显示多头情绪强烈；农产品与金属板块波动有限，涨跌幅多集中于±2%区间。 The energy and chemical sector remained relatively active, with synthetic rubber, fuel oil, andcrude oil posting gains exceeding 5%, accompanied by an open interest increase of over 5%,indicatingstrong bullish sentiment.In contrast,the agricultural products and metals sectorsexperienced limited fluctuations, with price movements mostly confined within the ±2% range. Source: iFind,CITIC Futures International Research Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research Source: iFind, CITICFutures International Research 1.2上涨重点品种Daily Rise 1.2.1原油Crude Oil 2025/1/13原油2502今日大幅跳空高开，早盘快速冲高突破6%涨幅后高位震荡整理，涨幅显著扩大，显示市场情绪偏强，且多头资金积极进场，成交量同步放大，短期市场趋势延续强势。今日涨幅7%，近一月涨幅11.9%。 On January 13, 2025, the Crude Oil (2502) contract opened significantly higher with a large gapup. In the early session, prices surged rapidly, breaking through a 6% gain before consolidating atelevated levels. The gains expanded notably, indicating strong market sentiment, with bullish capitalactively entering the market. Trading volume increased simultaneously, suggesting robust short-termmarket momentum.As of today, the contract posted a 7% gain, with a cumulative increase of11.9% over the past month. 地缘矛盾与改善的市场预期主导油价上涨。1）特朗普交易对油价负面干扰消退。市场主流舆论认为特朗普能源政策较难在短时间释放美国供应，此前油市悲观情绪边际改善。国际油价近期亦与美国油气ETF重现正相关关系，也能证明特朗普交易对油价的影响短期消退。后续重点关注特朗普能源政策公布。2）美国财政部宣布新一轮对俄罗斯制裁，国际油价应声大涨。制裁可能会影响到印度和中国炼厂对俄罗斯原油的进口，从而不得不从中东或其他地区寻找油源。 Geopolitical tensions and improved market expectations have primarily driven the recentsurge in oil prices: 1)Trump trade impact on oil prices diminishes.The market consensus suggests thatTrump's energy policies may not significantly increase U.S. supply in the short term, leading to amarginal improvement in previously bearish market sentiment. Additionally, the recent restoration ofa positive correlation between international oil prices and U.S. oil & gas ETFs further indicates theshort-term dissipation of the "Trump trade" effect on oil prices. Moving forward, attention should befocused on the formal announcement of Trump's energy policies. 2)New U.Ssanctions onRussia.The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced a newround of sanctions against Russia, triggering a sharp rise in international oil prices. The sanctionscould potentially disrupt Russian crude oil imports for Indian and Chinese refineries, forcing themtoseek alternative supplies from the Middle East or other regions. Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research 1.2.2燃油Fuel Oil 2025/1/13燃油2503今日大幅高开，早盘迅速拉升后维持高位，市场情绪偏强。今日涨幅7.0%，近一月涨幅9.0%。 On January 13, 2025, the Fuel Oil (2503) contract opened significantly higher and maintainedelevated levels after a rapid surge during the early session, reflecting strong market sentiment.Thecontract posted a 7.0% gain today, with a cumulative increase of 9.0% over the past month. 原油价格与供需因素共同推动燃油走强。1）原油走强带动燃油盘面上涨。美国财政部对俄新一轮制裁后国际原油价格应声上涨，带动下游燃油走强；2）船用需求持续提升后高硫燃油估值偏高。低硫燃油船用需求持续回落，科威特发电需求回落、低碳燃料持续冲击低硫燃油份额近期低高硫燃油价差持续回落处于偏低估位置。随着地缘降温船舶绕行减少，鹿特丹低硫销量有望大幅修复，叠加低硫燃油产量低位，低硫燃油利好逐步出现。 Crude oil price and supply-demand factors have jointly driven the fuel oil market strength: 1)Crude oil strength lifting fuel oil prices.Following the U.S. Treasury's new round ofsanctions against Russia, crude oil prices surged, driving downstream fuel oil prices higher. 2)Elevated marine fuel demand supporting high-sulfur fuel valuations.While demand forlow-sulfur fuel oil for marine use has continued to decline, high-sulfur fuel oil valuations remainelevated. Kuwait’s reduced power generation demand, combined with the ongoing impact of low-carbon fuels eroding the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, has kept the high-sulfur fuel oil pricespread at relatively low levels. As geopolitical tensions ease and vessel rerouting decreases,Rotterdam's low-sulfur fuel sales are expected to recover significantly. Couple