公司覆盖：铝链一体全球布局，成本优势显著

报告日期：[Table_BaseData]收盘价（元）总股本（百万股）流通股比例（%）总市值（亿元）流通市值（亿元）[Table_Chart][Table_Author]分析师：许勇其分析师：黄玺相关报告6/249/24 证券研究报告 -33%-17%0%17%33% ⚫风险提示铝需求不及预期；上游资源供给波动；能源成本大幅波动；项目建设进度不及预期等[Table_Profit]⚫重要财务指标主要财务指标营业收入收入同比（%）归属母公司净利润净利润同比（%）毛利率（%）ROE（%）每股收益（元）P/EP/BEV/EBITDA资料来源：wind，华安证券研究所 2/22证券研究报告单位:百万元2024A2025E2026E2027E28089289283097934487-3.1%3.0%7.1%11.3%4455460552936371102.0%3.3%15.0%20.4%23.3%22.7%23.8%25.1%16.6%15.6%16.3%17.6%0.960.991.141.378.208.477.366.121.361.321.201.075.595.614.563.42 3/22正文目录1一体化铝链布局，成本优势显著.....................................................................................................................................................51.1铝产业链一体布局，立足新疆拓展海外................................................................................................................................................51.2公司股权及管理权集中................................................................................................................................................................................71.3成本优势明显，盈利能力优化...................................................................................................................................................................92铝价有望维持高位，利润增长路径清晰......................................................................................................................................122.1铝土矿供给扰动频繁，产业一体化重要性凸显................................................................................................................................122.2双碳限制铝供给端，电力成本构筑竞争力.........................................................................................................................................143自有资源+优势电价，持续巩固低成本优势................................................................................................................................164盈利预测和估值探讨........................................................................................................................................................................18风险提示：.............................................................................................................................................................................................20财务报表与盈利预测............................................................................................................................................................................21 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明证券研究报告 4/22图表目录图表1天山铝业发展历程.......................................................................................................................................................................................5图表2公司营收及增速.............................................................................................................................................................................................5图表3公司归母净利润及增速...............................................................................................................................................................................5图表4公司分产品收入占比...................................................................................................................................................................................6图表5公司分产品毛利率........................................................................................................................................................................................6图表6公司自产铝锭收入及增速..........................................................................................................................................................................6图表7公司自产氧化铝收入及增速.....................................................................................................................................................................6图表8天山铝业产业链布局图...............................................................................................................................................................................7图表9天山铝业股权结构.......................................................................................................................................................................................8图表10公司高级管理人员.....................................................................................................................................................................................8图表11公司2021-25Q1杜邦分析.....................................................................................................................................................................9图表12可比公司杜邦分析.....................................................................................................................................................................................9图表13可比公司销售毛利率.................................................................................................................................................................................9图表14可比公司销售净利率.................................................................................