AI智能总结
USA | Building Products May PPI: Pricing Holding Up Well Despite WeakHousing Backdrop We're seeing selective price increases in aggregates, plumbing, roofing, ceilings,and maybe cement, but a weaker housing backdrop hasn't led to price declinesfor the group broadly. We're seeing some pricing pressure in roof trusses, EWP,and insulation, but fairly benign. Aggregates and cement both ticked up modestly.Aggregates prices ticked up ~20 bps MOMand 7.3% YOY in May, showcasing steady and strong pricing. Given the wet spring [read here],especially in the South and Northeast, aggregates volumes were likely weak in May. That said,TX & CA, two major states for heavy materials, were drier compared to last year in May, whichbodes well for MLM & VMC given their large presence. Despite softer vols, pricing power for theagg names remains solid & expected to deliver an MSD-HSD% increase this year [read here].Cement prices ticked up modestly by 10 bps MOM in May and were up by 1.9% on a YOY basis,after Apr index revised higher. We expect to see some traction in the mid-year increase ($8/ton),but implementation will be spotty. Wallboard remained flat & insulation saw slightly MOM increase.Wallboard prices remain flattishMOM in May, and up by 1.4% YOY. Prices have been holding up well since Dec (+1.3%), despite volsstill remaining under pressure. The index for insulation ticked up by 60bps MOM, and up by 3.6%YOY. Prices have also been up by 1.2% since Dec, which is likely a reflection of pricing increasesin mechanical & mineral wool rather than fiberglass. With orders down DD% & builders under thepressure of weak new res, fears of fiberglass prices falling have crept into the market [read here].Separately, the index for wood trusses is down by 20 bps MOM & down by 2.3% YOY after Apr indexrevised lower, and engineered wood (ex-trusses) is down by 10 bps MOM & down by ~5% YOY.Prices remain under pressure & will be an area of focus for BLDR's margins. Shingle prices moved higher; asphalt declined.The shingle PPI increased by 3.4% MOM in Mayand 1.8% higher YOY, reaching a record high. This aligns with our checks that the industry was ableto realize ~4% price increase in roofing, which should help OC support 32%+ roofing margins. Sell-out has also been flattish in 2Q in an average storm year, but our contacts noted activity could softenin 2H25 if storms don't pick up. Asphalt prices decreased by 2.6% MOM in May and decreasedby ~10% YOY, reflecting a tick down in oil prices in May driven by macro uncertainties. Oil priceshave decreased by ~6% YTD, to ~$69.8 today. With cost relief and shingle prices seeing notableimprovement, roofing margins for OC should remain robust. Plumbing, tiles, and cabinets were up MOM.The PPI data indicates prices for plumbing (+1%),tiles (+40bps), and cabinets (+30bps) were up modestly MOM in May. On a YOY basis, the indicesfor tiles (+1.3%) and cabinets (+50bps) have been trending slightly higher, with plumbing up by~5%. With FBIN announcing an ~8% price increase in plumbing in wholesale effective June 22nd,and MAS and Kohler with similar increases, with reciprocal tariffs with China remaining at the 30%level, FBIN & MAS's [read here] price:cost could settle at netural & providing upside to consensus.All other categories including doors, paint, carpets and rugs, and resilient floor coverings remainedfairly stable in May. Philip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.com Maggie Grady Miller, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-3472 | mgrady1@jefferies.com Jesse Barone, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 336-7260 | jbarone1@jefferies.com Fiona Shang * | Equity Associate(212) 336-7447 | fshang@jefferies.com .Source: BLS, Jefferies .Source: BLS, Jefferies .Source: BLS, Jefferies .Source: BLS, Jefferies .Source: BLS, Jefferies Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Philip Ng, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Maggie Grady Miller, CPA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Jesse Barone, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensatio