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每周简报

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每周简报

Weekly Briefing Banks underperformed this week, with the SX7P -2.8%, SX7E-3.0% vs SXXP -1.6%. The SX7P finished the week at almost271pts. Best performers this week were PEO, PKO, SPL, DNB,BCP. Worst performers were RBI, BGN, CABK, BCVN, BARC. European BanksPOSITIVE European Banks Flora Bocahut+33 (0)1 4458 3131flora.bocahut@barclays.comBBI, Paris Performance: Since the beginning of the year and on a total return basis, Banks haveoutperformed and are the best performing sector YTD, with the SX7P (European Banks index) up+33% and the SX7E (Eurozone banks) up +41% vs. the SXXP up +10%.Banks underperformedoverthe last five trading days, with the SX7P (European Banks) down -2.8% and SX7E (Eurozonebanks) down -3.0% while the SXXP (Stoxx Europe 600) was down -1.6%. The SX7P graduallywent down this week and finished the week at almost 271pts (vs. a recent high of 279pts on 20thMay). Over the last week, the best-performing banks were Polish banks (PEO +3.0%, PKO +1.9%,SPL +0.8%, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk secured a vote of confidence in Parliament),DNB (+0.4%) and BCP (+0.4%). The worst performers were RBI (-6.5%), BGN (-4.9%), CABK(-4.8%), BCVN (-4.5%) and BARC (-4.2%). Paola Sabbione+39 (0)2 6372 2579paola.sabbione@barclays.comBBI, Milan Rachel Wilson+44 (0)20 7773 1752rachel.wilson@barclays.comBarclays, UK Chart(s) of the Week: This week, our Charts of the Week look at the market capitalization(market cap) and average daily value (ADV) traded for European banks. With the sector up >30%year to date and >130% since 2022 the market cap and ADV have significantly changed,broadening the investment universe within banks for large cap investors (and narrowing itfurther for small cap investors). See Fig 1 and Fig 2. Aman Rakkar, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 1425aman.rakkar@barclays.comBarclays, UK Cecilia Romero Reyes+44 (0)20 7116 7314cecilia.romeroreyes@barclays.comBarclays, UK Investor Talking Points: At the sector level, M&A as a theme continued to gain momentum withthe largest cross-border M&A in the Eurozone for over 10 years being announced (French bankBPCE signed an MOU to acquire 75% of Portuguese bank Novo Banco). We have also beenreceiving questions from investors on the exposure of European banks to a potential change inthe remuneration of excess deposits at the Federal ReserveafterUS Senator Ted Cruz'sproposal. In the UK this week, motor finance was back in focus, with the market beginning tocomprehend potential benefit from the Financial Ombudsman consultation released last week(in which the FOS proposed applying lower interest rates to compensation payments). In Spain,discussions have centered around our views on the potential combination of Novo with otherplayers in our coverage, such as BCP and CABK, following our note and also around thetransaction announcement. In France, we are starting to get more incoming calls from investorsaround the French political risk, which while still contained is viewed as at risk of rising againwith French PM Bayrou expected to disclose his budget strategy by mid-July. Grace Dargan+44 (0)20 3555 4065grace.dargan@barclays.comBarclays, UK Namita Samtani, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 2583namita.samtani@barclays.comBarclays, UK Krishnendra Dubey+91 (0)22 6175 1719krishnendra.dubey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Macro:Key news on the macro front this week was:(1)US CPI m/m for May rose less thanexpected at +0.1% (vs. BBG est 0.2%, previous 0.2%), +2.8% YoY. Core goods inflation Dibin Meledath Koruthu, CFA+ 91 (22) 6175 2514dibin.meledathkoruthu@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Ameya Rajesh Khandekar+91 (0)22 6175 1145ameyarajesh.khandekar@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18.Completed: 13-Jun-25, 18:44 GMTReleased: 15-Jun-25, 07:30 GMTRestricted - External underwhelmed and core services CPI was alsosoftacross the board.(2)Univ of Michigansentiment for June beat expectations, rising 8.3 points to 60.5 (vs. BBG est. 53.6), as concernsabout the economy eased and short-term inflation expectations improved.(3)UK monthly GDPfor Apr dropped 0.3% in April, which was worse than expected (vs. BBG est -0.1%, previous+0.2%) and the largest monthly contraction in 18 months, due to sharp tax increases and USPresident Donald Trump'stariffs. News: Key news that we highlight this week includes the following:(1)BPCE announced on 13June that they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the acquisition of a 7