AI智能总结
USA | Software Software Download: ORCL Backlog Pops & Inviteto AI/Software Update Call + More ADBE had a solid FQ2 with good AI traction but soft RPO/CRPO, and early-stageAI monetization may limit NT upside. ORCL posted cleaner results, with strongRPO, bullish FY26 cloud guide, and rising demand. We are hosting a call on ourbest TMT ideas in 2H25 on Monday, June 16, at 10AM ET. On Tuesday, June17, we will host an AI and Software Update call at 10AM ET. Please see insidefor ESTC 10-K nuggets and full invites to our upcoming calls. ADBE and ORCL Earnings.ADBE beat on rev/EPS with DM ARR in line and strong AI traction (+20%q/q to 24B generations), but signs of growth deceleration (RPO/cRPO softening) and still-nascent AImonetization may cap near-term enthusiasm. Mgmt raised FY25 rev guide by $150M and remainsconfident in DD growth. ORCL delivered a cleaner story - RPO grew 41% and is guided to growmore than 100% in FY26, with strength in infra and backlog conversion supporting a bullish cloudnarrative. Cloud growth is expected to accelerate (FY26 +40% vs 24% FY25), IaaS guide was raisedto +70%, and a capex surge reflects mounting demand. Thill's Software Pulse Check.NFIB SMB Index increased by three points in May to 98.8, aheadof the 95.9 consensus and snapping a four-month streak of declines. This follows abating tariffconcerns vs the peak uncertainty of earlier in the year and is a positive read for SMB names forthe 2H (INTU, MNDY). Invites to Upcoming Calls and Events Industry •June 16 at 10:00AM ET:Best TMT Ideas in the Second Half of 2025.Registration Link: HERE AI/Software •June 17 at 10:00AM ET:AI/Software Update Call.Registration Link: HERE Please see inside for full invites to calls and ESTC 10-K nuggets. Brent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.com ESTC 10-K Nuggets •65% of RPO is expected to be recognized within 12 months (cRPO ~$1B), 90% over the next 2years and the remainder thereafter•12-month cRPO grew 18% y/y growth in F4Q•24-month RPO grew 17% y/y growth in F4Q vs 15.2% in F3Q•Revenue outside of the US accounted for 44% of total rev in FY25 vs 42% in FY24 and 41% in FY23•3,537 employees in more than 40 countries globally at the end of FY25 (vs 3,187 in 35 countriesat the end of FY24, or an 11% y/y increase)•On May 21, 2025, acquired Keep Alerting, an open-source AIOps company for $10M cash•Effective on June 9, 2025, Navam Welihinda (CFO) has transitioned his Chief Accounting Officer(CAO) title to Jane Bone, who was the Group VP, CAO of the company. No change to her comp•No officers have adopted or terminated 10b5-1 plan over the last quarter•Cloud hosting commitment as of April 2025: $812M Full Invites: Industry June 16 at 10:00AM ET: Best TMT Ideas in the Second Half of 2025 Registration Link: HERE Please join the entire Jefferies TMT Research team for a call to discuss our best 2H 2025 ideas acrossSoftware, Semis, and Internet. AI/Software June 17 at 10:00AM ET: AI/Software Update Call Registration Link: HERE Please join Brent Thill and the Jefferies Software team for a deep dive on where we stand inside theenterprise AI market + overall software thoughts (debates, top picks, etc). An interactive Q&A will follow. Topics of Discussion •Ahead of Q2 numbers - What do we expect?•Looking into H2 - Most Preferred + Least Preferred?•Latest Management and Investor Feedback? Company Valuation/Risks Adobe Inc. Our $590 price target is based on 20x EV/EBITDA (slightly below the historical average), applied to our estimates in 5-8 quarters. Risks include executionat scale, competitive marketing in the tech market, M&A integration, subs not being immune to recessions, and threat from generative AI solutions. Elastic NV Our $110 PT is derived via a discounted cash flow (CoE 10.4%; TG 5%). Key risks include competition, including open-source developments, and thetechnical nature of the products from a sales perspective. Intuit Inc. Our $850 PT is based on a 25x EV/EBITDA, applied to EBITDA estimates in 5-8 quarters (i.e., 4-Q sum a year from now). Risks include macro headwinds,slow international traction, disruptive competition, and tax season volatility. Oracle Corporation Our PT of $220 is based on a DCF analysis (CoE 10%; TG 5%) and implies a 26x earnings multiple on our FY27 EPS est. Key risks include execution tomigrate customers to cloud-based solutions on the infrastructure side of the business, and incrementally greater competition in applications againstenterprise software peers. monday.com Ltd. Our $360 price target is based on ~11x our revenue estimate in 5-8 quarters, which is below the average for high-growth software peers. Risks includecompetition, slower market growth, macro/recession, and delayed profitability. Analyst Certification: I, Brent Thill, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no par