2025年已过半，但收益是否仅靠运气？

EUROPE | Chemicals 2025 - half way there but are earnings livingon a prayer? The majority of the European chemicals coverage require an above average2H earnings contribution to reach guidance/consensus forecasts. We areon average -2% below consensus (-4% across diversifieds, and -1% inconsumer chemicals), whilst consumer ingredients remain our preferredexposure. We reduce Symrise and Brenntag to U/P, Clariant and Arkema toHOLD, and upgrade Syensqo and Umicore to BUY. Operationally, product spreads for upstream producers have moved from an EBITDAtailwind at the start of the year (average ~+5%) to an earnings headwind (average ~-5%).We note Chemical imports from China into Europe continue to increase (China net trade flowup c.3% YTD), whilst European demand is muted, at best. We forecast average FY25F volumes~flat for the diversified chemicals. We note the majority of the diversified coverage alsorequires an above average 2H earnings contribution to achieve guidance/consensus (JEFestaverage 4% below consensus for diversified chemicals). Lower feedstock costs relative toother regions are unlikely to offset the risk from lower volumes/demand. Consensus requiresan average 3.6% organic earnings growth for FY25F, 1H tracking well below these levels.For Ingredients, we remain positive given continued good OSG in H2 but stepping downsequentially (210bps h/h) given (1) tough comps (2) modest evidence of inventory build in H1and (3) a weaker US Consumer. While slower, growth will remain ahead of staples, with marginssupportive. Most at risk from a H2 slowdown is SY1 given a back-half weighted topline outlook. Strategically, portfolio change continues to be the one constant amongst Europeanchemicals, MAHA gives re-rate potential for Ingredients.Whilst financial leverage broadlyremains at a comfortable level at this point in the cycle, the imperative to refine businessmodels is still high. Where divesting assets has previously been viewed as a positive, itsnow viewed as unlikely/overhang to an investment case. This brings greater balance sheetemphasis for those using potential proceeds to delever (Lanxess, BASF), or buyback stock(DSM-Firmenich, AkzoNobel). Recent announcements (JMAT) and confirmation of completion(OCI) suggests M&A remains an attractive alternative.Looking to Ingredientsthe RFK agenda/MAHA report, potential legislation and the shift in US consumer sentiment on food labellingis a mid-term growth support and suggests re-rate potential (we see c. 10% multiple upside).This should support more Food/Health exposed names (KYGA and NSISB). Our recent expertevent suggests this will provide a tailwind already in 2026. Where to be exposed in Chemicals:From a subsector perspective, our preferred exposureremains consumer chemicals (earnings defensiveness, valuation c.-18% vs longer termaverages, view c. 10pp re-rate potential). Key picks include Novonesis (highest top/bottomline growth), DSM-Firmenich (25% discount to peers post Animal divestment) and Kerry(reformulation tailwinds, clear link growth, margins, cash). Diversified chemicals remainchallenging given earnings delta relative to consensus (on average MSD below). Within thissubsegment, prefer businesses with relative pricing power (Syensqo, Umicore) in the currentdeflationary/weak demand environment. We remain BUY on Air Liquide. Whilst volumeswill likely weigh on top line, net pricing power will continue to drive margin improvementahead of consensus. Ferts have short term positive earnings momentum (esp. relative tothe diversifieds) assisted by temporary factors (outages/trade flow restrictions) not a morebalanced longer term supply/demand outlook. We remain underweight Yara and K+S. Chris Counihan * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4676 | ccounihan@jefferies.com Charlie Bentley * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4405 | cbentley@jefferies.com Marcus Dunford-Castro * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4741 | mdunfordcastro@jefferies.com Helena Xu * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4146 | helena.xu@jefferies.com Table of Contents Summary of Changes Chemical Tearsheet Diversified/Commodity Spreads Our Global chemical monitor shows that spreads are continuing to bounce along the bottom andremain a headwind for much of the chemical coverage. This is a function of weakening pricemomentum and likely uncertainty caused by potential trade tariffs. Importantly, this is being realisedacross both our European and North American coverage universe. With most of our coveragerequiring an above-average 2H earnings contribution (relative to history), this suggests increasingrisk to 2025 consensus forecasts. Inventory Levels Q1 customer inventory levels are c.61 days, slightly above longer-term averages. Average saleswere down -2.1% sequentially (reflecting some seasonality in demand and weaker demand) whileinventory levels were generally flat (c.-0.1%). This is highlighted in the chart below: We note end markets that still have above average stocking levels include