移民通缩

Migration Deflation A common investor question is why housing demand hasslowed this year despite a rate environment that is notsignificantlydifferentthan the past 2 years. The sharp slumpin domestic migration relative to 2021-2022 is one answer tothis. The next risk to demand is slower internationalmigration. U.S. Homebuilding & Building ProductsPOSITIVE U.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProductsMatthew Bouley+1 212 526 9029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research SurveyintheHomebuilders & Building Productscategory:Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » Elizabeth Langan+1 212 526 5960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, US We believe that new home supply chased the population growth during the pandemic, asdomestic migration spiked with growth in large states like Florida and Texas. With housingdemand in 2025 continuing to underwhelm, we areoftenasked how this could be given the'underbuilt' concept and an interest rate environment that is similar to 2023 and 2024. Wethink that the normalization lower in domestic migration activity is one key driver of this,with Florida in particular going from +300k net domestic migration in 2022 down to 64k in2024.This may not be the only driver of 2025's dynamics, as we nod to volatile consumerconfidence, multiple years of consumers absorbing higher inflation, lessening excess savings,and returning student loan payments etc. but we think lower domestic migration patterns is afairly straightforward explanation of lesser demand today, while ongoing new home supplyadditions reflect investment decisions that were made in recent years under a better demandbackdrop. Anika Dholakia+1 212 526 8780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, US Elaine Ku+1 212 526 7529elaine.ku@barclays.comBCI, US Going forward, we think the next risk will be aroundinternationalmigration, which actuallyfilled the voidleftby lower domestic migration in 2024 in FL and TX, but that trend may notcontinue. Positively, one could argue that lower domestic migration in 2024 was artificially low(a pull-forward from the pandemic) and could normalize higher again in future years. Net international migrationin the US drastically increased from 2022 to 2024, but nowappears to be slowing. On this topic, we rely on the deep work on tracking immigration by theBarclays Thematic and Economics research teams, who note that: "Humanitarian immigrationhas ground to a halt, with monthly entries dropping below 1k in 2025" (see the full report here:The work permits puzzle | 30 May 2025). For the purposes of housing in Florida and Texas, there is risk that the portion of demand that isdriven by migration is only just starting to recede, as domestic migration already slowed lastyear but international migration still added to the populations, yet we may begin to see bothforms of migration no longer supporting demand. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 5.Completed: 16-Jun-25, 18:59 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 19:03 GMTRestricted - External Much Slower Domestic Migration Explains WaningDemand Below, we show net domestic migration trends since 2017 in Florida and Texas.Broadly,domestic migration peaked in '21-'22 and then declined into 2024. Note that the Census reportsthis data on a fairly lagging basis (Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better EstimateIncrease in Net International Migration), and so we may not even see a fuller picture of morerecent trends until the 2025 release. The idea is that the spike in housing demand in Florida and Texas during the pandemicmay have been unsustainable as domestic migration to these key housing states wasatypically high. The now-slowing trend in domestic migration is accordingly an importantexplanation for why demand appears slower in 2025 versus the similar interest ratebackdrop that began in 2023.Furthermore, the next risk becomes how the slowing ininternationalmigration - which was a net addition for these two states in 2023 and 2024 - furtherimpacts housing demand going forward. In Florida, net domestic migration peaked over 300k in 2022, and fell to 64k in 2024. FIGURE 1. Florida Net Domestic Migration In Texas, net domestic migration peaked over 200k in 2022, declining to 85k in 2024. Net International Migration Filled the Void fromSlower Domestic Migration in 2023 and 2024,Noticeably in FL and TX With domestic migration having slowed in 2023 and 2024, growth in these states relied onthe rise in international migration. This now leaves a risk going forward, if international migration is no longer able to fill thevoidleftby lesser domestic migr