宝丽奥蜜思控股（4927 JP）：奥蜜思的新型抗皱产品

Japan | Cosmetics, Household & Personal CarePola Orbis Holdings New Wrinkle Improvement Product from Orbis There was an update regarding the revamp of the product released in 2019.The contribution to ORBIS as a whole is negligible. This product appeals towrinkle improvement and skin whitening. This product launch in Japan isscheduled on 20th, August. At 11 am on the 17th, the second brand, Orbis, announced the technical background of thenew product, The Wrinkle Serum.The original product was launched in 2019 and this will bethe second revamp of the existing product. The price is 4,950 yen for 30g (165 yen / g). Theexact price will remain the same after the renewal. FY24 sales were 2.17 billion yen, +6%. Thecompany will sell this product at official EC and directly managed stores from 20th August. The company's FY25 sales plan has not been disclosed for this product, but sales increasedby +7% at the time of the previous renewal in FY22. Assuming the same growth rate, theproduct's sales in FY25 would be 2.3 billion yen (YoY+100 to +200 million yen), which is verysmall compared with ORBIS's total sales of 48.2 billion yen, 28% of group sales. We had aneutral impression. The product is effective in whitening and improving wrinkles. It can be used on all partsof a face and is offered at an affordable price. In addition, it appeals to the feeling of thespeed effect.Niacinamide is expected to be effective in improving wrinkles and whitening. Asa speed effect, skin images after two weeks were shared. Sales of Pola Wrinkle Shot decreased by 14% to 6.5 billion yen in FY24. One item is offeredat 14,850 yen (Medical Serum N) (742.5 yen/g) for 20 g. The customer base is different, andcannibalization is not expected. Shiseido Elixir Wrinkle Cream is offered at 8,690 yen for 22g (395 yen/g). The price is slightlyhigher, but the drugstore sales channels differ. The new POLA BA product is expected to have a larger contribution:The new POLA BAannounced in September is expected to grow at +5% in the current fiscal year. FY24 sales were27.7 billion yen, down 5% year-on-year. The company plans to increase its sales by +1.3-1.4billion yen in the current fiscal year by renewing them, focusing on dermal components aroundthe hair follicles. It is a greater contribution than Orbis. Hisae Kawamoto * | Equity Analyst+81 3 5251 6159 | hisae.kawamoto@jefferies.comShogo Sawada * | Equity Analyst+81 3 5251 6117 | ssawada@jefferies.com Company Description Pola Orbis Holdings Pola Orbis is a major domestic cosmetics maker. Clear differentiation by brand, price range and sales channel, with the high-end Pola brand sold instores and via in-home consultation, the mid-priced brand Orbis through mail order, and Three positioned as a department store brand. Expandedoverseas with the acquisition of Jurlique and H20, but profitability is lagging. Company Valuation/Risks Pola Orbis Holdings Price target ¥1,050 based on FY12/25E EV/EBITDA of 7x and cross-checked with ROE-P/B correlation. Risks to our thesis include 1) a newinnovative product launch such as Wrinkle Shot Medical Serum (2017), 2) margin expansion along with Pola sales growth in Japan and China. Analyst Certification: I, Hisae Kawamoto, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Shogo Sawada, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Hisae Kawamoto is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst. Registration of non-US analysts:Shogo Sawada is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation