季风追踪：进展停滞

Monsoon tracker: Stalled progress Monsoon rains did not advance any further over the pastweek, leading to an increase in cumulative rainfall deficit inthe season so far. The IMD is predicting 'above normal'rainfall in June. Reservoir levels remain adequate, higherthan last year's levels. Aastha Gudwani+91 (0) 22 6719 6075aastha.gudwani@barclays.comBSIPL, India Shreya Sodhani+65 6308 4525shreya.sodhani@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Afterthe earliest monsoon onset in more than a decade on 23 May, the rains had slowedsomewhat in the first week of June, covering the Peninsular regions. However, over the lastweek, with no further advance of the southwest monsoon,the deficit in all-India cumulativerainfall worsened to 31% below normal as of 15 June, from 25% below normal till 8 June.Northwest India experienced a fresh spell of heat wave during the second half of the week. Thedate of the start of the monsoon is not necessarily indicative of its progress through the entireseason. June typically is a volatile month as far as monsoon rains go; with rains resuming today,we will continue to monitor its progress. Amruta Ghare+91 (0) 22 6719 6074amruta.ghare@barclays.comBSIPL, India The Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) has forecast an 'above normal' monsoon forJune as well the entire season.The IMD's second long-range forecast for the entire monsoonseason shows a relatively higher probability for an monsoon to be in 'excess' (i.e. greater than110% of long period average) compared with the first forecast.1Region wise, the IMD's forecastsindicate rainfall will be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (keyproducers of pulses and coarse cereals), normal over Northwest India (producers of rice andwheat) and below normal over Northeast India. Reservoir storage levels broadly unchanged. Since it is still early in the season, reservoirlevels have not moved much compared with the past week.As of 12 June, storage in keyreservoirs stood at 30% of total capacity (5 June: 31%). This was still higher than the 22%levels seen in the corresponding period of the previous year. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3. Barclays | India Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Shreya Sodhani, Amruta Ghare and Aastha Gudwani, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or willbe directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do